Broncos vs Texans Wagering Pick
Matt Schaub will try to lead the Houston Texans to a 3-0 record Sunday when the Texans visit the Denver Broncos at Mile High.
In Houston's last 13 games with Schaub under center, the Texans are 10-3 SU and ATS. The Denver Broncos are 2-1 SU and ATS all-time against Houston, with the home team winning and covering each time [ Get line updates and injury reports on Twitter ]
But while the Broncos are on a short week (after losing MNF), they face a team that was elevated to No. 2 on the Super Bowl futures list at Bovada this week. And Houston owns a 6-1 ATS road mark recently along with an 11-3 ATS record in their past 14 games as a favorite.
Sportsbooks, including Sportsbook.ag, had set the Broncos as 1-point favorites on the opening line for this contest. The total was hovering around 46 earlier in the week (check for the current over-under lines at GTbets.eu).
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Broncos sit at No. 14 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Texans are at No. 5 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Texans will win this game 42-24.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Denver's No. 12-ranked offense (26 PPG) against a Texans defense that ranks No. 1 at 8.5 PPG. The Broncos passing attack has averaged 229 yards per game, more than the Texans give up through the air (124 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Texans feature the league's No. 5-rated road run defense, allowing 65 yards per game. Denver, meanwhile, ranks No. 16 in rushing offense at home.
Houston was a 27-7 winner in its last match on the road against the Jaguars. They covered the 6.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 34 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window. Arian Foster tore up the turf for 110 rushing yards in the latest Texans game, a 27-7 win over the Jaguars at EverBank Field.
In their last action, Denver was a 27-21 loser on the road against the Falcons. They failed to cover the 3-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (48) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. Willis McGahee ran through the Atlanta defense for 113 yards in Denver's last game, but the Broncos still lost a 27-21 decision at Georgia Dome.
Houston Texans Trends:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Denver Broncos Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5
A few Texans at Broncos trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Houston home to Tennessee, Sunday, September 30
Denver home to Oakland, Sunday, September 30