Divisional Playoff Pick: Pats vs Broncos Odds
The last time these teams met, the Patriots stomped the mystique out of Tim Tebow, routing the Broncos in Week 15 at Denver.
Now after another Tebow miracle against the Steelers, the Broncos aim to avenge that loss in the other AFC divisional playoff game. Clearly online sportsbooks don't buy the hype, making the Patriots home chalk of 14 points.
The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in 6 trips to Foxboro since 1995 and the Patriots, despite their home dominance, are just 1-4 ATS in their past 5 playoff home games.
Denver has not packed much of a bite as a big underdog lately, going just 1-6 ATS when dogged by double digits, according to the Odds Shark NFL database. New England won and covered their final 7 games as a favorite and 6 of those games went OVER the betting total. (Check out the biggest Broncos point spread, available over at Bovada earlier.
If you're going with the Patriots in this one, they're listed as 13.5-point favorites on the betting line for the contest. Totals bettors have seen that number set at 49.5 as shops such as TopBet.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Patriots rated this week at No. 11 and the Broncos sitting at No. 27. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 35-19 result in favor of the Patriots this week.
Patriots Broncos Props: courtesy of Bovada:
Passing Yards – Tim Tebow (DEN)
TD Passes – Tim Tebow (DEN)
Over 1½ (+195)
Under 1½ (-250)
Interceptions – Tim Tebow (DEN)
Over ½ (-165)
Under ½ (+135)
Rushing Yards – Tim Tebow (DEN)
Rushing Attempts – Tim Tebow (DEN)
Completions - Tim Tebow (DEN)
Will Tim Tebow (DEN) score a rushing TD in the game?
Receiving Yards – Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
Passing Yards - Tom Brady (NE)
Total TD Passes – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 2½ (-150)
Under 2½ (+120)
Receiving Yards – Wes Welker (NE)
Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Will Rob Gronkowski (NE) score a TD in the game?
Receiving Yards – Aaron Hernandez (NE)
Will Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow hug at the end of the game?
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up New England's No. 3-ranked offense (32.1 PPG) against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 24 at 24.4 PPG. The Patriots passing attack has averaged 317.8 yards per game, more than the Broncos give up through the air (231.5 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Broncos own the league's No. 18-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 118.9 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 18 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
In their last action, Denver was a 29-23 winner at home against the Steelers. They covered the 7.5–point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (52) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Tim Tebow led his team to victory last time out, throwing for 316 yards Sunday as the Broncos downed the Steelers 29-23 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
The Patriots were a 49-21 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Bills. They covered the 10–point spread as favorites, while the total score (70) made winners of OVER bettors. Tom Brady dusted the Bills secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Patriots defeated Buffalo 49-21 at Gillette Stadium.
Denver Broncos Trends:
When playing in January are 3-7
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few Broncos at Patriots trends to consider:
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing New England
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England's last 14 games at home