NFL Odds: Super Bowl Betting Trends
The New England Patriots are just 1-5-1 ATS in their previous seven Super Bowl appearances as they travel to Glendale, Arizona for a Super Bowl XLIX matchup with the Seattle Seahawks and we take a look at the betting trends for the NFL's February 1 championship game.
New England is also just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 playoff games, although the Patriots did just easily cover the posted spread in a 45-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. Tom Brady threw three touchdown passes for the Pats in that win, and LeGarrette Blount ran for three scores.
The Patriots are 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last eight games against NFC teams, but specifically just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the NFC West division.
Seattle, meanwhile, is 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games, but failed to cover the spread in a 28-22 overtime win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. The Seahawks are 6-1 SU in their last seven playoff games, including their win in last year's Super Bowl.
Overall, underdogs have been a great Super Bowl bet over the past 13 seasons, going 10-3 ATS. Underdogs have won outright the past three games and five of seven. However, it remains to be seen who will be the underdog in Super Bowl XLIX as early betting had the line as a pick'em (although the Patriots were favored early in the week at Bovada).
The Seahawks hold the 6-2 edge both SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Patriots, and they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the AFC East division. Seattle is also 10-4 SU in its last 14 games against AFC teams overall.
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For totals bettors, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three games between the Patriots and the Seahawks, and 12-3 in Seattle's last 15 games against AFC teams. The OVER is also 5-1 in New England's last six games against teams from the NFC West division.
Favorites have lost three straight Super Bowls and five of the last seven overall. If the line stays under three points it'll be just the third time since 1980 that the Super Bowl spread was that small - it was Denver -2 vs. Seattle last year, and New England -2.5 vs. the Giants three years ago.
New England was an underdog five times this season; they won four of those games outright.
Super Bowl XLIX NFL Betting Trends
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
Seahawks 25-5 SU last 30 games as favorites
Seahawks 9-0 SU (5-3-1 ATS) last 9 games as playoff favorites
Seahawks 8-0 SU last 8 games (6-1-1 ATS)
Seahawks 6-1 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC East
Seahawks 6-1 SU last 7 playoff games
Seahawks 4-2-1 ATS last 7 playoff games
Seahawks 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 meetings with Patriots
Seahawks 10-4 SU last 14 games vs. AFC (1-8 SU previous 9)
Seahawks 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC
Patriots 1-5-1 ATS in 7 previous Super Bowl appearances (3-4 SU)
Patriots 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 games vs. NFC
Patriots 1-3 SU last 4 games vs. NFC West (11-0 SU previous 11)
Patriots 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. NFC West (11-0 ATS previous 11)
Patriots 5-10 ATS last 15 playoff games (8-7 SU)
OVER 3-0 in last 3 meetings (UNDER 3-0 previous 3)
OVER 13-3 in Seattle’s last 16 games vs. AFC East
OVER 12-3 in Seattle’s last 15 games vs. AFC
OVER 5-1 in New England’s last 6 games vs. NFC West
UNDER 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games vs. NFC
UNDER 5-1 in New England's last 6 playoff games as underdogs
Underdogs have been on a run in the Super Bowl, and the Seattle Seahawks certainly look like a live betting dog for Super Bowl XLVIII against the Denver Broncos.
Underdogs have covered the spread in five of the last six Super Bowls, winning four of six outright. The Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, and New York Giants have pulled off straight-up Super Bowl upsets.
The Giants did it twice, beating the favored New England Patriots in 2012 and 2008. The Arizona Cardinals covered as 7-point underdogs in a 27-23 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Green Bay Packers in 2011 are the only favorites to win and cover since 2007, when Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts won and covered in a 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. The Ravens’ win over the 49ers last season broke a run of five straight Super Bowl covers by the NFC.
Manning is back in the Super Bowl for a third time; he’s leading the Denver Broncos this time. The Broncos are the only team to be favored in every game this season. They’ve excelled in the role of favorites, going 9-2 straight-up and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the chalk.
Some sports books, like 5Dimes, opened the Super Bowl point spread as a pick ‘em. Heavy early action came in on the Broncos, who could be found as high as 3-point favorites early in the week.
The Seahawks have thrived in the underdog role under coach Pete Carroll. Seattle is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as underdogs and 17-5-1 as dogs over the last three seasons. The Seahawks were only underdogs once this season - they covered as short dogs in a 19-17 loss at San Francisco in early December.
So much attention is paid to the Seahawks’ success at home at noisy CenturyLink Field, but they haven’t been bad away from home, either. They’ve covered the spread in nine of their last 11 away games.