NFL Picks Week 6: Computer Predictions
Computers can make great handicappers because they have no team loyalties, don’t read one-sided newspaper articles and don’t over-emphasize revenge angles and rainy skies.
What they can do, when loaded with the proper formulas and stats weighting systems, is deliver a steady stream of unbiased, stats-based predictions. And in years past, the NFL picks computer system here at OddsShark.com has churned out winners aplenty.
But the computer only starts making money after Week 5. By that time, the early surprises are weeded out and there is enough data for the computer to chew into.
So after sitting on the sidelines for five weeks, the NFL picks computer gets into the game for Week 6. Pity help the sportsbooks…
Check out all the computer predictions below, along with some analysis from our resident human handicapper Mike Pickett. Lines courtesy of 5Dimes (if you are betting favorites, check them out – if you are betting underdogs, check out Bovada).
Pittsburgh -6.5 at Tennessee +6.5, Total 43.5
Prediction: 26-6 Pitt | Cover: Steelers | Total: UNDER
Mike Pickett: Steelers2-10 ATS past 12 road games. They are injured and playing on a short week. Titans are 8-2 SU past 10 home vs Steelers. Titans playing for the job of Mike Munchak (#3 on list of coaches likely to be fired).
Pick: Titans +6.5 | Matchup Report
Indianapolis +3.5 at NY Jets -3.5, Total 43
Prediction: 19-17 Indy | Cover: Colts | Total: UNDER
Mike Pickett: An upset? Don’t think so. Classic letdown spot for Colts after big upset of Packers for their ailing coach. But they lost nine in row on road. Jets want to calm the doubters, Sanchez due for big game, Jets dominate AFC South. Line moving in favor of Jets.
Pick: Jets -3.5 | Matchup Report
Oakland +10.5 at Atlanta -10.5, Total 48.5
Prediction: 35-10 Falcons | Cover: Falcons | Total: UNDER
Mike Pickett: Raiders 0-9 ATS after bye week, Falcons motivated to be 6-0 hitting their bye week. Beware Raiders, who are tough on road and as underdogs.
Pick: Falcons -10.5 | Matchup Report
Detroit +4 at Philadelphia -4, Total 47.5
Prediction: 21-19 Eagles | Cover: Lions | Total: UNDER
Mike Pickett: Prediction is a slim win for Philly, which fits their MO. Lions 0-6 vs Philly since 1995 and 0-7 ATS after a bye week on the road. Money pouring in on Lions, we bet against the public.
Pick: Eagles -4 | Matchup Report
Dallas +3.5 at Baltimore -3.5, Total 44
Prediction: 29-15 Ravens | Cover: Ravens | Total OVER
Mike Pickett: Cowboys 11-3 ATS past 14 seasons after a bye week. Romo due for bounce game after 5-pick debacle. Ravens usually win, but seldom cover at home.
Pick: Cowboys +3.5 | Matchup Report
Kansas City +4 at Tampa Bay -4, Total 40
Prediction: 21-13 Tampa Bay | Cover: Bucs | Total: UNDER
Mike Pickett: Low-scoring game likely, we prefer the UNDER here. Bucs 5-1 ATS in post-bye weeks lately, Chiefs have Cassel troubles at QB. Money moving in TB direction, we think that is correct in this case.
Pick: Bucs -4 | Matchup Report
Cincinnati PK at Cleveland PK, Total 43.5
Prediction: 24-17 Bengals | Cover: Cincy | Total: UNDER
Mike Pickett: We like Cincy (7-1 SU past 8 vs Browns), despite Browns playing for Coach Shurmur’s job. Many cappers picking Browns here. I am not. Cleveland lost 14 straight SU as underdog.
Pick: Bengals PK | Matchup Report
St. Louis +4 at Miami -4, Total 38
Prediction: 22-20 Miami | Cover: Rams | Total: OVER
Mike Pickett: We are betting moneyline and SU Rams win. They are 5-1 ATS past 6 as dog, Dolphins have dominated Rams recent years (8-1), not today. Would bet the Rams as PK, certainly bet them with the points.
Pick: Rams +4 | Matchup Report
Buffalo +4.5 at Arizona -4.5, Total 43
Prediction: 26-12 Arizona | Cover: Cardinals | Total: UNDER
Mike Pickett: Chan Gailey favorite to be first coach fired and it probably happens Sunday. Expect a 2-TD margin of victory, but higher score. OVER trends galore, including 13-2 past 15 Bills games when they are dogs.
Picks: Arizona -4.5, OVER 43 | Matchup Report
New England -3.5 at Seattle +3.5, Total 44.5
Prediction: 32-25 Patriots | Cover: Patriots | Total: OVER
Mike Pickett: Pats always win as road chalk and 6-0-1 ATS past 7 on road overall; Seahawks not great team, although great as home dog (12-2-1 ATS) and cover machines at home. Spread hasn’t budged, books nervous about moving to -3 on Patriots.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 | Matchup Report
NY Giants +7 at San Francisco -7, Total 45.5
Prediction: 40-32 San Francisco | Cover: 49ers | Total: OVER
Mike Pickett: 49ers dominating, but Giants excellent road team and nasty dog. Line moved 2 points from -5 in past two days. Agreed on the 49ers cover, disagree on high score.
Pick: 49ers -7 | Matchup Report
Green Bay +3 at Houston -3, Total 47.5
Prediction: 37-22 Texans | Cover: Houston | Total: OVER
Mike Pickett: Line has moved two points towards Green Bay, a ruthless team as underdogs (11-2-1 ATS since 2008). We feel line move relates to Texans MLB Brian Cushing knee injury. Packers win this one SU, so grab the points if they are offering.
Pick: Packers +3 | Matchup Report
Denver PK at San DiegoPK, Total 49.5
Prediction: 30-28 Chargers
Cover: San Diego | Total: OVER
Mike Pickett: As a rule/trend, Denver loses as dog, loses on road, loses vs Chargers. Lot of trends stacked vs Manning and Chargers will rebound from Saints loss.
Pick: Chargers PK | Matchup Report