NFL Odds: Will home teams regress?

After another winning week against the point spread for the home teams, NFL bettors have to start to question when and if a regression will begin to take hold.

Home teams went 8-7 against the spread last week and head into Week 8 at 58-46-3 against the spread. That’s a 55.77 percent success rate against the spread, something that's likely to regress closer to a 50/50 split by the end of the season.

Home underdogs are 21-18 ATS this season, and there are some big home dogs this week. The Carolina Panthers are 6.5-point favorites at Tampa Bay in the Thursday night game. The Green Bay Packers are 10-point favorites at the struggling Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. And the Seattle Seahawks are 13-point favorites at the St. Louis Rams, who lost their starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, to a knee injury last week.

Double-digit home underdogs have covered the spread in 18 of the last 20 games and are 46-26 ATS since 2000. 

Odds & Ends

The Houston Texans covered the spread for the first time this season in last week’s 17-16 loss at Kansas City. The Texans are now 1-6 against the spread. The Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars are tied for the worst record against the spread. The Chicago Bears (1-5-1 ATS) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) also are struggling against the number. Every team has now covered the spread at least once.

The Dallas Cowboys own the best record against the spread at 6-1. The San Diego Chargers are 5-1-1 against the spread.

All seven games involving Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have gone OVER the posted total. Six of seven games involving the Bears have gone OVER the total. Six of the seven games involving the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs have stayed UNDER the total.

In the college ranks, only one team remains unbeaten against the spread – the Houston Cougars (6-0 ATS). Houston has covered the spread in eight straight games dating back to last season, the longest such streak in the nation. The California Golden Bears are the only team yet to cover the spread. The Golden Bears are 0-7 against the number this season and have failed to cover the spread in 11 straight games dating back to last season.

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