NFL Week 10 Line Moves
Oddsmakers seemed to have nailed Week 10 NFL point spreads with their early numbers as betting has remained even on most games at most online sportsbooks.
The biggest mover of the week by far was Tennessee moving a full point from -1.0 to -2.0 on the road against Miami at multiple books, including Bovada. Tennessee has been fairly consistent this season at 5-3 SU and ATS. Bettors don’t know what to expect from Miami, who will turn to Chad Pennington as their starter this week. Pennington hasn’t played since Week 3 of the 2009 season.
While the rest of the board has remained mostly stagnant, a closer look reveals a few books that are offering slightly different odds than the norm.
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Buffalo opened at -3.0 at home against the Detroit Lions, and are still at that number at many books, but has the Bills at -2.5. Considering Detroit is the NFL’s best team ATS at 7-1 this season, it is no surprise that some bettors are taking the three points on Detroit.
That said, Buffalo appears to be on the brink of a win with three straight losses by just three points. If you like Buffalo to get their first win this week, take the better odds at .
Minnesota and Chicago are two very difficult teams to diagnose this season, as evidenced by the low spread of Minnesota -1.0 at Chicago this week. Even with all of the drama surrounding the team off the field, line movements at Bovada suggest that bettors favor the Vikings as the line there has moved to Minnesota -1.5. Chicago is 5-3 SU this season, but has managed just a 3-4-1 ATS record. Minnesota is 3-5 both SU and ATS.
Even at the huge chalk of -14.0, there is plenty to like about the New York Giants this week at home against Dallas. Not only have the Giants won five straight games, but they are also 4-1 ATS over that stretch. Dallas on the other hand just fired their coach this week and has lost five straight, holding the NFL’s worst ATS record this season at 1-7 (same as their SU record).
Bovada takes the edge off of betting the Giants a bit with their half-point line movement to New York -13.5. Looks like some bettors can’t pass up on 14 points in a division rivalry game.
Perhaps the most surprising lack of line movement comes in the St. Louis at San Francisco game, which opened at San Francisco -6.0. Even though St. Louis is 0-3 SU on the road, they are 2-1 ATS, and I’m surprised more people haven’t hopped on at +6.0.