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NFL Week 11 Betting Trends Analysis

It takes a special set of circumstances for the Jacksonville Jaguars to be laying points in a game. The Jaguars need to be home and playing a really bad team.
 
That's the combination Thursday as the Jaguars are a field goal favorite hosting Tennessee. Before this matchup, the Jaguars had been favored just twice during their last 51 games.
 
Early money has come on the Titans lowering the line to 2.5 at some sportsbooks. Those bettors aren't put off with the Titans having lost 17 of their last 19 games and being 1-7-1 against the spread (ATS) during their past nine games against the Jaguars.

Patriots strong on Monday night Football

On the opposite end we have New England as a seven-point home favorite versus Buffalo on Monday night. If you count last season's Super Bowl as a pick'em between New England and Seattle, the Patriots have not been an underdog in 17 straight games. That's the longest streak in the NFL.
 
The Patriots have won 11 of the past 14 times they've been on Monday Night Football. They have dominated the Bills winning 18 of the last 20 meetings, including 40-32 in Week 2. That score wasn't as close as the game as New England built a 37-13 lead before the Bills made the final look semi-respectable by scoring during garbage time.
 
Tom Brady shredded the Bills for 466 yards, the most passing yards the Bills have given up in franchise history. Brady is 24-3 lifetime against Buffalo. The Bills defeated the New York Jets, 22-17, as 2.5-point road 'dogs in their last game. The Bills, however, are 2-13 after winning straight-up the week before in an underdog role.
 
This bodes poorly for the Jets, too, trend-wise. They are 1-12 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Redskins 0-14 SU after getting an ATS win

Washington smashed New Orleans 47-14 this past Sunday. The Redskins now travel to unbeaten Carolina getting seven points. The Redskins have dropped 14 in a row after covering the week before.
 
Call it a coincidence but Dallas is 8-0 in Week 11. This just happens to be the week Tony Romo returns. He's been out since Week 2 with a broken collarbone.

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