NFL Week 11 Odds: Line Movement
The dramatic line movements that occurred early in the NFL season are long gone. Advance NFL lines are popping up earlier and earlier, sometimes more than a week ahead of the game’s kickoff. By the week of the game, the lines and totals are sharpened thoroughly and generally hold pretty steady. But there were a few exceptions leading up to Week 11’s weekend slate.
In Jacksonville, the Jaguars, fresh off their first win of the season, were still being faded by bettors in their Sunday home game against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals opened as 6.5-point favorites, but the line had grown right past the key number of seven and had even reached as high as 9.5 at a few shops. Has the value swung to the home underdog Jags?
The Cardinals have won once in their last 10 road games, but Jacksonville is just 2-8 against the spread this season.
The Green Bay Packers’ QB issues were behind another one of the most significant line movements of the week. The Giants opened as 3-point favorites over the Packers, who are down to a practice-squad quarterback. Scott Tolzien will get the start for the Packers. The line has gone to as high as Giants -6 after the news.
The Giants have won three straight games after starting the season 0-6. New York has covered the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog. The Packers have lost four consecutive games straight-up and against the spread as an underdog.
Some other notable Week 11 line moves . . .
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: Case Keenum, the undrafted rookie QB for the Houston Texans, has some supporters. The Texans opened as 6-point favorites over the Raiders, but the line had been bet up to -7.5 as of Friday.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Falcons began the week as 2.5-point favorites, but the line shrunk throughout the week and was down to minus-1 at several shops on Friday.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: The Bills opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line had moved down to a pick ‘em as of Friday.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites, but early money pushed this number up to 4.5 as of Friday.