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NFL Week 11 Opening Odds

Last week, almost every game on the NFL board had a spread of four points or less; this week, almost half of the games open with a favorite of -7.0 or more.

Perhaps the most surprising of the large opening spreads is Pittsburgh -7.5 at home against Oakland. Pittsburgh is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games, including outright losses in two of their last three. Oakland on the other hand is 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games, and is coming off a bye.

It makes sense that Pittsburgh will want to bounce back from a home loss to New England last week, but Oakland +7.5 at Sports Interaction is sure to draw some action and may move down to +7.0.
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Baltimore is -10.0 on the road against Carolina this week at Bovada. Baltimore is clearly the better team at 6-3 SU and 4-4-1 ATS compared to Carolina’s 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS record. Many bettors will likely side with Baltimore considering how bad Carolina looks and all of their injury troubles, but Carolina +10.0 looks tempting here.

Ten points is a lot to give up on the road, and Baltimore is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. They have also never beaten Carolina (0-3 SU & ATS).

Last week, Dallas pulled off a stunning outright upset over the New York Giants as 12.5-point underdogs. Remarkably, they now open at -7.0 at home against Detroit at Bovada. Detroit is coming off a road loss to previously winless Buffalo.

Bettors may side with Dallas after the impressive win, but once again, the dog looks like it has some bite here; while both teams are 2-7 SU this year, Dallas is tied for worst in the league at 2-7 ATS while Detroit is tied for best in the league at 7-2 ATS.

Perhaps the biggest marquee matchup on the board this week is Indianapolis at New England. New England is -3.0 at 5Dimes. This spread may not move, but action will likely lean towards New England; NE is 4-0 SU (2-1-1 ATS) at home while Indianapolis is 2-3 SU and ATS on the road this season.

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Other opening lines this week include home favorites Kansas City -7.5 over Arizona, New York Jets -7.0 over Houston, New Orleans -12.0 over Seattle, San Diego -10.0 over Denver, Miami -1.5 over Chicago, Cincinnati -5.5 over Buffalo, Jacksonville -1.0 over Cleveland, San Francisco -3.0 over Tampa Bay, and road favorites Green Bay -3.0 over Minnesota and Atlanta -3.0 over St. Louis.