NFL Week 11 Props Preview
Two notable quarterback battles dominate the props this week, as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off in New England, and Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers clash in Minnesota.
The annual Manning vs. Brady battle has become a staple on the NFL schedule. Sunday's game in New England will be the ninth time the two rivals have met on the gridiron. Over at Bovada the oddsmakers are predicting that Manning will find the end zone more, but that Brady will have the better passing numbers.
Right now the available Manning vs. Brady prop bets at Bovada include TD passes, interceptions, and passing percentage. So far this season their numbers in those categories are almost identical:
Peyton Manning - 64.2 %, 16 TD, 4 INT
Tom Brady – 64.5%, 17 TD, 4 INT
For touchdowns Manning is favored at -150, while Brady is a +120 underdog. That seems almost backwards, since Brady has one more TD this season and is coming off a three-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh, while Manning put up a season-low in passing yards with no touchdowns last week. Brady looks well worth an underdog pick if you're looking for value.
For interceptions both quarterbacks are listed at -115. Since both have four picks this season we'll examine the defenses to try and select a favorite. Neither defense has great numbers against the pass, but the Patriots have one more interception and have shown some improvement lately so Manning throwing more picks seems likely.
That just leaves pass percentage. Here Brady is a slight favorite at -120, while Manning is listed at -110. In their last two battles Brady has delivered a better percentage than Manning both times. Since Brady stopped going down field as much after Randy Moss' exodus, we like Brady here as well since he should connect on most of his short passes all day long.
Shifting over to the other QB matchup, Rodgers vs. Favre, the oddsmakers at Bovada expect the Packers' QB to easily outperform the old veteran on Sunday. The props available for these two are also pass percentage, touchdowns, and interceptions. On the season Rodgers has the edge in all three.
Aaron Rodgers – 63.4%, 15 TD, 9 INT
Brett Favre – 62.3 %, 10 TD, 16 INT
On the TD prop Rodgers is a heavy favorite at -165, while Favre is a +135 underdog. When Green Bay and Minnesota squared off in Week 7 Rodgers had two touchdowns to Favre's one. We'll be very surprised if Rodgers doesn't top Favre again on Sunday.
The place that Favre should easily have Rodgers beat is interceptions. On that prop Favre is a huge favorite at -200. Can you blame them, though, since Favre has thrown nine picks in his last four games. Favre had three picks to Rodgers' two back in Week 7, and likely the only way Favre doesn't pay out in this prop is if he leaves the game early due to injury.
Finally, there's the pass percentage prop, which has Rodgers at -130 and Favre at +100. Rodgers killed Favre in Week 7 with 61.8% compared to Favres's 55%. Favre's accuracy hasn't been good lately, and having a hobbled Percy Harvin won't help matters. Look for Rodgers to school the old man again.