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NFL Week 12 Betting Primer

It’s been all about the favorites in NFL betting lately, but this dominant trend that’s seen them go 40-20-6 ATS since Week 7 needs to come to an end soon, right? Well, probably, and this might be the week. Reason being is because of the inordinate number of massive spreads. At the time of this writing (Thursday morning), there were five double-digit spreads, which is the most since Week 17 of the 2013 season.

What really sticks out, however, is that there’s three monster spreads of 13.5 or more — Bears vs Eagles, Dolphins vs Patriots, Packers vs Steelers. The last time we saw three favorites this big in the same week was back in Week 16 of 2009.

What I’m getting at here is that if underdogs finally do have a bounce-back week, it would make sense for them to do so in a week where they’re getting so many points. So if you’re on the fence with some of your picks this week, I’d suggest leaning toward the dogs.

And as for that greasy bookie … Well, I’m sure this Thanksgiving weekend he’s thankful for lazy bettors, so don’t be one! Use this page and the other tools on this site to make this his worst Thanksgiving holiday ever!

Good luck this weekend, and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Bears at Eagles
  • The Eagles are averaging a league-high 40.3 points over their last three games and a league-high 35.8 points in home games. The Bears are averaging just 15 points per game on the road.
  • Over their last three games, the Eagles are allowing an NFL-low 149.3 passing yards per game.
  • The Eagles are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL (71). They’ve allowed a measly 56.8 rushing yards per game at home.
  • During their eight-game SU winning streak, the Eagles’ average margin of victory is 15.75 points.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Bears' last four games against the Eagles.
  • The Bears are 3-1 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Eagles.
  • The visiting team is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup.
  • The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last eight games.
  • The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as underdog.
  • The Bears are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road after consecutive home games.
  • The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the Bears' last 23 games in Week 12.
Dolphins at Patriots
  • The Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home against the Dolphins with an average winning margin of 18.25 points.
  • The Dolphins are averaging a league-low 11 points per game on the road. The Patriots are allowing just 12.5 points per game over their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Dolphins' last five games. The average combined score in those games was 53.2.
  • The Dolphins are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Patriots.
  • The Dolphins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 divisional road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Patriots' last 15 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games at home.
  • The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road against teams with winning records.
Browns at Bengals
  • The Bengals are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Browns with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points.
  • The Browns are 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs divisional opponents.
  • At home this season, the Bengals are allowing a league-low 141 passing yards per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Browns' last seven games against the Bengals. The average combined score in those games was 36.7.
  • The Bengals are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games at home against teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bengals' last six games at home. The average combined score in those games was 34.3
  • The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Browns' last 11 games on the road.
Panthers at Jets
  • The Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite.
  • The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a bye week.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Panthers' last seven games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 36.3.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Panthers' last four games against the Jets.
  • The visiting team is 0-5-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 16 of the Jets' last 20 games after a bye.
  • The Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after consecutive wins.
Bills at Chiefs
  • The Bills have allowed a league-high 45 points per game and a league-high 212.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Bills' last 14 games against the Chiefs.
  • The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road against the Chiefs.
  • The Chiefs are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games against AFC East teams.
  • The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
  • The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home after winning their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Bills' last 13 games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The Bills are 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Bills are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games on the road in November.
Titans at Colts
  • The Colts are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as home underdogs.
  • The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Colts.
  • The Titans are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against the Colts.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Titans' last five games against the Colts. The average combined score in those games was 56.2.
  • The Colts are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a bye.
  • The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
  • The Titans are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games on the road against teams with losing records.
  • The Titans are 7-27-2 ATS in their last 36 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Titans are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Titans' last 12 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Titans' last nine games. The average combined score in those games was 48.1.
Buccaneers at Falcons
  • Over their last three games, the Buccaneers rank 31st in the NFL in net yards per play. Atlanta ranks seventh in that span.
  • The Buccaneers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road against the Falcons.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Buccaneers' last four games on the road against the Falcons.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Falcons' last 14 games at home. The average combined score in those games was 55.7.
  • The Buccaneers are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Falcons.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in November.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Falcons' last 12 games after a win.
Seahawks at 49ers
  • The 49ers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after their bye week.
  • The Seahawks are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the 49ers. Their average margin of victory in those games is 11.1 points.
  • The Seahawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against the 49ers.
  • The 49ers are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
  • The 49ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The Seahawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Seahawks' last seven divisional road games.
  • The Seahawks are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games after a loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Seahawks' last 10 games against the 49ers.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the 49ers' last 17 games after a bye.
Saints at Rams
  • The Saints have rushed for a league-best 203 rushing yards per game over their last three games. The Rams are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season.
  • During the Saints’ eight-game SU winning streak, their average margin of victory is 16.5 points.
  • The Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after a loss.
  • The Rams are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Saints are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Saints' last nine games in the late afternoon.
  • The Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The Saints are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as underdog.
Jaguars at Cardinals
  • The Cardinals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Jaguars are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC West teams.
  • The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 8.8 points per game on the road this season.
  • Over their last three games, the Jaguars are allowing a league-low 55.3 rushing yards per game.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Jaguars' last four games against the Cardinals.
  • The visiting team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Cardinals' last nine games. The average combined score in those games was 41.3.
  • The Cardinals are 24-9-1 SU in their last 34 games at home.
Broncos at Raiders
  • The Broncos are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Raiders.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Broncos' last five games against the Raiders. The average combined score in those games was 31.8.
  • The Raiders are 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Raiders' last eight games at home. The average combined score in those games was 55.4.
  • The Broncos are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games. Their average losing margin in those games is 16.7 points.
  • The Broncos are 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 divisional road games.
  • The Raiders are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games after a loss.
  • The Broncos are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games on the road against teams with losing records.
  • The Broncos are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games as underdog.
Packers at Steelers
  • The Steelers are 9-0 SU in their last nine games at night. Their average margin of victory in those games is 15.9, and 29 in home games at night.
  • The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games at night.
  • The last time the Packers won in Pittsburgh was in 1970!
  • The Packers are averaging just 13.4 points per game over their last five games. The Steelers are allowing just 15.2 points per game over their last five games.
  • Pittsburgh ranks fifth in net yards per play this season. Green Bay ranks 24th.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers' last 10 games as favorite.
  • The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The Steelers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Packers' last 17 games.
  • The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in November.
Texans at Ravens
  • The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on Monday.
  • The Ravens are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games at night.
  • The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on Monday.
  • The Ravens have shut out their opponent in two of their last three games.
  • The Texans rank 30th in net yards per play over their last three games. The Ravens rank 9th over that span.
  • The Texans are allowing a league-high 333.8 passing yards per game on the road this season.
  • The Texans are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Ravens.
  • The Texans are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Ravens.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Texans' last five games against the Ravens. The average combined score in those games was 41.8.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last six games.
  • The Texans are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Texans' last eight games.

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