NFL Week 16 Betting Trends
The New England Patriots head to Buffalo this week, where the trends say they should have no problem winning and covering the posted NFL spread versus the Bills.
The predictive scoring models employed here at Odds Shark point the same way, projecting a 35-19 result.
The Bills may be one of the hottest teams for bettors right now with a 7-1-1 record ATS in their last nine games, but when they play the Patriots it's usually a one-sided affair. The Bills and Pats met up in Foxboro back in Week 3, and New England won 38-30 as a 14.5-point favorite.
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The Patriots may not have covered in that game but they did extend their winning streak against the Bills to 14 games. In those 14 games New England is a healthy 9-4-1 ATS.
Since this week's game is in Buffalo the Patriots are only 8-point favorites on the NFL spread this time. The smaller spread should mean a cover this time as well because New England is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games at Buffalo.
Totals bettors have a predicament in this game. New England has gone OVER the total in eight straight and they're 12-2 OVER on the season. That includes going OVER the total (43) against the Bills in Week 3. The problem is the trends are predicting an UNDER this weekend.
Buffalo is 7-1 UNDER in their last eight December games, and in the Patriots' last 12 games at Buffalo the UNDER in 9-3. With this weekend's total set at 46.5 the UNDER might be worth the gamble. The number has already moved to 44 at most shops like 5Dimes.
Also delivering solid UNDER trends this weekend is San Francisco at St. Louis. The Rams have gone UNDER the total in their last four home games versus the 49ers, and they're 5-2 UNDER at home this season.
The 49ers also have a history of falling UNDER the total on the road in December with a 6-2 UNDER mark in their last eight during the Christmas month. The prediction? Try 20-18 for the Rams.
In you're betting the NFL spread in this game the 49ers look ripe for an upset at +2. The Rams may play in one of the weakest divisions in football, but they haven't taken advantage of it with a 2-16 record SU in their last 18 games in the division. They're also 5-13 ATS and 12-5-1 UNDER in those 18 contests.
Also trending a possible upset this weekend is Detroit at Miami. The Lions may be total busts on the road, but at least they still do fine ATS. In their last seven on the road Detroit is 1-6 SU, but 4-3 ATS.
Last week they snapped their 26-game road losing streak with a 23-20 win over Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog. The math models point to a 21-19 win for Miami, which would be a Lion cover.
In their last nine games at home the Dolphins have one win. They were favored in six of those games and compiled a lame 2-7 record ATS. In their last 20 home games the Dolphins are 8-12 SU and only 5-15 ATS. That's why the Lions are looking good at on the NFL trends +4 this week.