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NFL Week 4 Betting Trends

The Panthers may be huge underdogs versus the Saints this week, but according to the trends, Carolina is where your money should go against the spread.

The Panthers rightly deserve to be 13.5-point underdogs at New Orleans this week. Carolina is 0-3 and has scored a league-low 32 points so far this season. Despite all of this, I'll still take Carolina +13.5 at Bovada this week. Why?

The Saints are a terrible 0-9 ATS in their last nine games at home against the Panthers. New Orleans' juggernaut offense hasn't been quite as fierce yet, leaving them primed for a big ATS upset against such a heavy spread. In their last 14 games as a double-digit favorite the Saints are only 3-11 ATS.

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A few more trends worth considering are the Panthers' 7-2 ATS record in their last nine games against the NFC South and their amazing 7-2 SU/ATS record in their last nine overall versus the Saints. Basically what we're saying is the Saints have a history of tanking versus the Panthers. Here's even more Bet Against the Saints Ammunition - when was the last time New Orleans covered a spread in the regular season? Try last Nov. 30 against the Patriots. Since then, they are 0-9 ATS in the regular season (they were 2-1 ATS in the playoffs last year).

If you're a totals bettor, the Game of the Week for you is Baltimore at Pittsburgh. With the defenses the Ravens and Steelers have boasted - both now and in the past - you would expect this game to be a big winner for under bettors.

And you would be wrong, historically speaking anyway. The last 10 times the Ravens and Steelers have clashed in Pittsburgh the over is 8-1-1. In their last 20 matchups overall, the over is 13-6-1. Also interesting is that the Steelers are 10-3 to the over in their last 13 October games at home.

The oddsmakers know the defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh are tough, and they drop the total because of it. For this weekend's game the total was set 34.5 at Bovada. That's the lowest total on the board this week, and one of only three games with a total lower than 40. That looks like a prime over candidate.

The calendar changing over to October this weekend also opens up another weird trend that could earn bettors some scratch on the Jets at Buffalo game. The Jets are 5-point road favorites here at Bovada, but don't immediately think that's where your money should go.

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The Patriots were supposed to bomb the Bills last week, but failed to cover the spread in a 38-30 win. Will the Jets deliver a similar effort? According to the trends the Jets have been failing bettors on the road in October for years with a 1-10 record both SU and ATS in their past 11 contests. However, the Bills' record at home in October in their last 10 games is 8-2 ATS. Definitely something to think about and to see if there are any factors or angles at play that project these trends to continue.

More Week 4 NFL Betting Trends - courtesy of Bovada:

Is Arizona primed to win and play OVER? Arizona covered 7 straight October games and the OVER is 11-3-1 past 15 October games.

Are the Bengals doomed to lose ATS? Cincinnati 4-13-1 ATS past 18 October games. The Dolphins head to a bye week and a few trends to consider in their Monday Nighter against the Pats.

Miami OVER is 5-1 past 6 seasons before BYE and they are 5-2 ATS past 7 seasons before BYE week.

McNabb returns to Philly and the UNDER has been the play with the Eagles. Philadelphia UNDER is 8-2 past 10 at home in October Chargers charged up to cover spreads at home.

San Diego is 9-2 ATS past 11 games at home in October.

Seahawks overwhelming October road team. The OVER is 12-2 past 14 October road games for the Seahawks.