NFL Week 7 Opening Odds
Last week, favorites finally had the last laugh, finishing 7-6-1 ATS to earn a narrow victory over underdogs, a trend we predicted here.
Most of the victories last week were narrow as well, with eight of the 14 games decided by four points or less. With just a few exceptions, this week’s batch of opening lines appears to be predicting another weekend of close and competitive games.
Only three of the 11 lines currently out have favorites of over 3.5 points; Seattle -5.5 at home against Arizona, New Orleans -13.0 at home against Cleveland, and Baltimore -13.0 at home against Buffalo.
Seattle opened at -3.0, but bettors bet them heavily early and moved the line to -5.5. As the week goes on, Arizona may see some action to balance this out; they are after all coming off of a bye week and a big win over New Orleans.
Last week, New Orleans won huge over Tampa Bay, while Cleveland lost big to Pittsburgh. Bettors moved the early line of New Orleans -11.5 to -13.0, and may continue to bet on New Orleans now that they’ve shown the capacity to cover the spread again.
Baltimore (opened at -12.0, now -13.0) will be looking to bounce back after an overtime loss to New England last week, going against a Buffalo team that has given up 34 or more points in their last four games. [ Like NFL underdogs? Two shops offer consistently the best value on NFL underdogs - Bovada and [custom:sb-sportsinteraction-textlink] ]
Another game with some heavy early line moves is Atlanta -3.5 at home against Cincinnati. The game opened at Atlanta -5.5. The line movement is a bit surprising; Atlanta is coming off of a big loss at Philadelphia, but Cincinnati entered the bye on a two-game losing streak to Cleveland and Tampa Bay.
The line may move the other way (against Atlanta) as the week progresses.
San Diego and Dallas are both favorites this week despite some major early-season struggles. San Diego is -3.0 at home against New England, who is 4-1 and coming off of a big home win over Baltimore.
Bettors may side with San Diego despite their 2-4 record due to the fact that all four of San Diego’s losses have come on the road, and they’ve looked dominant in both of their home games.
Dallas is also -3.0 at home against the New York Giants, who are on a three-game winning streak. Dallas’s 1-4 season has been shrouded with controversy, and bettors will likely take the points on New York, who showed they could win big on the road against Houston two weeks ago.
Other opening lines this week include home favorites Chicago -3.0 over Washington, Tampa Bay -3.0 over Jacksonville, Green Bay -3.0 over Minnesota, and road favorites Pittsburgh -2.5 (now -3.0) over Miami and San Francisco -3.0 over Carolina.