Week 8: Colts vs Texans
The biggest game on tap for Week 8 of the NFL season is the Monday nighter between Houston and Indianapolis with both teams coming off bye weeks.
Can the Texans post another upset versus their divisional foe? They have lost 15 of 17 career meetings with the Colts, but are 7-3 ATS in the past 10. The point spread might be the best trend, because post-bye trends for these teams throw differing numbers - the Colts are 9-2 past 11 favoring the OVER while the Texans are 5-1 past 6 favoring the UNDER.
Back in Week 1, the Texans defeated the Colts 34-24 as a 1.5-point home underdog. That was only the Texans' second win in 17 games against Indianapolis and it raised their ATS record against them to 10-7. Should bettors wager big on the Texans to pull off another upset as a 5-point road dog on the Monday night odds list?
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Glancing at the latest trends, it looks like a smart wager. The Texans have won four in a row on the road while posting a 2-1-1 record ATS. In their last 10 road games, Houston is a solid 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS.
The Colts have started the season 0-2 against the AFC South with losses to Houston and Jacksonville. Indianapolis was favored in both losses and they've also dropped their last two at home ATS, also both as the favorite. As well, don't forget that even though the Colts are a lifetime 15-2 SU against Houston they're still a lackluster 7-10 ATS.
If you don't feel like risking your money on a spread bet on the Monday night game, you could at least bet on the total. This matchup between two high-powered offenses and two lame defenses has OVER written all over it, and the trends agree. If you need the facts, the Texans' defense is ranked dead last in the league right now while Indy isn't much better, ranked No. 21.
The Colts are coming off their bye week, and in their last 11 after their bye the OVER is 9-2. Both the Colts and Texans are 4-2 to the OVER so far this season, and whenever they face off the OVER dominates. In the last 11 games between the Colts and Texans the OVER/UNDER results are 10-1. Bet the OVER hard on the posted total of 50.
A few other notable trends that caught our eye this week are for Green Bay at the Jets and Detroit at Washington.
The Jets have owned the Packers for a long time. In their last six matchups the Jets are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS versus the Packers. Green Bay has lost their last four games at the Jets and they're 1-2 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Jets are also coming off their bye and they're 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.
The Washington at Detroit contest has an interesting quirk as the Redskins are heading into their bye week, while the Lions are exiting theirs. The Redskins have won four straight ATS when entering their bye week, while the Lions have posted six straight UNDER results in games following their bye.
Also worth noting is that the last eight times the Redskins and Lions have clashed the UNDER is 6-0-2.
More Week 8 NFL trends courtesy of Bovada:
Miami vs Cincinnati
Dolphins 6-2 ATS past 8 vs Bengals
Bengals 1-5 ATS past 6 at home to Miami
Jacksonville vs Dallas
Jags 4-1 ATS past 5 games before a BYE week
3 of past 4 meetings played OVER total
Washington vs Detroit
Redskins lost 4 straight ATS before a BYE
Lions played 6 straight UNDERS after a BYE
Buffalo vs Kansas City
7 of past 8 meetings played UNDER total
Bills 8-2 ATS past 10 games vs Chiefs
Green Bay vs NY Jets
Jets 7-1 SU vs Packers since 1981
Packers UNDER is 7-2 past 9 Oct road games
Denver vs San Francisco
Denver 1-3 ATS past 4 trips to SF
49ers 1-5 ATS past 6 games before a BYE
Carolina vs St. Louis
Panthers 7-1 ATS past 8 games vs Rams
Rams OVER is 9-1 past 10 games before a BYE
Tennessee vs San Diego
Titans 6-2 ATS past 8 games before a BYE
Chargers 6-0 ATS past 6 vs Titans
Tampa Bay vs Arizona
6 of past 7 meetings played UNDER the total
Bucs 1-11 past 12 Oct road games SU
Minnesota vs New England
Past 4 meetings all played UNDER the total
Vikes 2-10 SU & ATS past 12 vs AFC East
Seattle vs Oakland
Seahawks 3-7 ATS past 10 games vs Raiders
Raiders 5-0 SU & ATS past 5 home to Seattle
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans
Saints 0-3-1 ATS past 4 vs Steelers
Steelers 7-1 ATS past 8 vs NFC South
Houston vs Indianapolis
Colts OVER is 9-2 past 11 games after a BYE
Texans UNDER is 5-1 past 6 games after a BYE