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NFL Week 8 Wagering Recap

After dominating four of the last five weeks, underdogs finally received the short end of the stick as favorites came to play. Looks like all they needed to get back on track was a bit of home cooking.

Betting favorites went 8-4 ATS on Sunday, thanks in part to having home-field advantage in all but one of the 12 games played on the day. Miami -1.0 was the only road favorite of the day, and they won and covered against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Of course, considering how crazy this season has been, it should come as no surprise that underdogs found a way to shine even on a day they went 4-8 ATS. All three of Sunday’s biggest favorites (Kansas City -7.0, Dallas -6.5, and the New York Jets -6.5) failed to cover ATS, with Dallas and New York losing outright as well.
Dallas was -6.5 at home against Jacksonville, but got blown out 35-17. The score went over the total of 42, and the Cowboys fell to 1-6 on the season.

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New York meanwhile was shut out by the 6.5-point underdog Green Bay Packers, 9-0. With only nine points scored, the game stayed well under the total of 42.

Not all big favorites failed to cover, however, as New England -5.5 and San Diego -6.0 each earned covers at home this week.

New England was -5.5 against Minnesota. It was unclear for most of the week whether Brett Favre would play, and while he did end up starting, New England still won and covered. San Diego was bet all the way to -6.0 against red-hot Tennessee despite the fact that they were on a three-game losing streak; it was a close game, but San Diego held off a late surge by Tennessee and won 33-25. Both games went over their totals.

On the day, the Under went 7-5, faring slightly better than the Over in Over/Under betting. It was far different from last week, which was the highest scoring week in the NFL in 27 years. Six games stayed under 40 points in scoring on Sunday, compared to only three in Week 7. All six of those games stayed under their totals as well.

While the 9-0 score in the Green Bay/New York game was the most surprising Under of the day, Kansas City’s 13-10 win over Buffalo was also surprising. That game had the day’s highest total at 46 as many were expecting a shootout, but it ended up being a  defensive struggle instead.

The highest score of the day came in Tampa Bay’s shootout upset win over Arizona as a 3-point underdog. The 38-35 score added up to 73 points, which was well over the low total of 38.

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