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NFL Week 9 Betting Primer

Did you get burned last week or were you the fire starter? If you followed the advice in last week’s Betting Primer, then your greasy bookie is probably desperate to the point that he’s considering burning his house down as part of some sort of insurance scam. 

We focused on the top net yards per play teams over their last three games, and the ones who played in Week 8 ended up going 4-1 ATS, making for a nice tidy profit for bettors. So continue to keep tabs on this stat and continue to target the higher-ranking teams. FYI — the top net yards per play teams over their last three games are the Jaguars, Saints, Vikings, Steelers, Eagles and Falcons.

This week, we’ll take a peek at one of my other favorite strategies — fading the public, and last week was a great week to get rich by doing so. Last week, the top consensus public ATS bets were the Browns, Jets, Broncos, 49ers, Lions and Redskins. They combined to go a pathetic 1-5 ATS. Keep tabs on public consensus action here.

So, keep plugging away, use the above strategies as part of your NFL handicapping, and use the trends and stats below to figure out how teams perform in specific situations. And, oh yes, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

    Bengals at Jaguars
    • Over their last three games, the Jaguars ranks first in the NFL in net yards per play. The Bengals rank 16th.
    • The Jaguars lead the NFL with 169 rushing yards per game.
    • The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after their bye week.
    • The Bengals are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against the Jaguars.
    • The Bengals are 2-7 SU in their last nine games on the road against the Jaguars.
    • The Jaguars are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games after a win.
    • The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Jaguars' last five games at home in November.
    • The Bengals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games as road underdogs.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Bengals' last 15 games. The average combined score in those games was 36.1.
    • The Bengals are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games as underdog.
    • The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after consecutive ATS losses.
    • The Jaguars are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games after a win.
    • The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road against teams with winning records.
    Broncos at Eagles
    • Over their last three games, the Broncos are averaging a league-low 9.7 points per game.
    • The Eagles are allowing a league-low 70.4 rushing yards per game, and just 62.2 at home.
    • The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Broncos' last five games against the Eagles.
    • The Broncos are 0-3 SU in their last three games on the road against the Eagles.
    • The visiting team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.
    • The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC East teams.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Eagles' last seven games.
    • The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in the early afternoon.
    • The Broncos are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in November.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Broncos' last eight games as road underdogs.
    • The Broncos are 19-7 SU in their last 26 games after a loss.
    Buccaneers at Saints
    • Over their last three games, the Saints are second in the NFL in net yards per play.
    • In road games, the Bucs are allowing an NFL-worst 152.7 rushing yards per game.
    • The Buccaneers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games.
    • The Buccaneers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against the Saints.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Buccaneers' last five games against the Saints. The average combined score in those games was 42.2.
    • The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home against teams with losing records.
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Saints' last 10 games.
    • The Saints are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Buccaneers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.
    • The Buccaneers are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games after losing as a favorite.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Buccaneers' last 15 games in November.
    Colts at Texans
    • The Texans lead the NFL in points per game with 30.7. The Colts are allowing the most points per game at 30.8.
    • The Colts are last in the NFL in net yards per play.
    • The Colts are 23-7 SU in their last 30 games against the Texans.
    • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Colts' last 12 games on the road against the Texans.
    • The Texans are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games after a loss.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Texans' last five games. The average combined score in those games was 69.
    • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Colts’ last 12 divisional road games.
    • The favored team is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four games in this matchup.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 21 of the Colts' last 30 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Colts are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the road in November.
    • The Colts are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road.
    Falcons at Panthers
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Falcons' last eight games against the Panthers. The average combined score in those games was 44.9.
    • Over their last three games, the Falcons rank sixth in net yards per play. The Panthers rank 24th over that span.
    • The visiting team is 2-7 ATS in the last nine games in this matchup.
    • The Falcons are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as underdog.
    • The Panthers are 2-6 SU in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Panthers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home after consecutive road games.
    • The favored team is 13-5 SU in the last 18 games in this matchup.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 19 of the Falcons' last 25 games in November.
    • The Falcons are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games.
    • The Falcons are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs NFC teams.
    Rams at Giants
    • The Giants are averaging just 13 points per game at home.
    • Over their last three games, the Giants rank 30th in the NFL in net yards per play. The Rams rank 11th over that span.
    • Over their last three games, the Rams are allowing a league-low 11 points per game.
    • The Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after their bye week.
    • The Giants are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following their bye week.
    • The Rams are 0-7 SU in their last seven games against the Giants.
    • The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the Giants.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams' last five games against the Giants.
    • The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when hosting a West Coast team.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Giants' last seven games at home. The average combined score in those games was 33.3.
    • The Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.
    • The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
    • The Giants are 10-28 ATS in their last 38 games at home in November.
    • The Giants are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home after failing to cover in their two most recent home games.
    • The Giants are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games in Week 9.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Rams' last 17 games in the early afternoon.
    Ravens at Titans
    • The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following their bye week.
    • The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Titans.
    • The Ravens are allowing just 150 passing yards per game over their last three games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Ravens' last 10 games against the Titans.
    • The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after a win.
    • The Ravens are 5-2 SU in their last seven games on the road against the Titans.
    • The Titans are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games after a win.
    • The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in November.
    • The Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
    • DeMarco Murray has scored at least one rushing TD in eight of his last 10 games at home.
    • The Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last six games in November.
    Redskins at Seahawks
    • The Seahawks are averaging a league-high 33 points per game at home.
    • Over his last three games, Russell Wilson is averaging 315.3 passing yards per game.
    • The favored team is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games in this matchup.
    • The Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
    • The Seahawks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Redskins' last eight games on the road against the Seahawks.
    • The total has gone OVER in 19 of the Seahawks' last 25 games when hosting an East Coast team.
    • The Seahawks are 21-2 SU in their last 23 games at home against teams with losing records.
    • The Seahawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in the late afternoon.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Redskins' last seven games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 53.7.
    • The Redskins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 9.
    • The Redskins are 9-23 SU in their last 32 games on the road.
    Cardinals at 49ers
    • The 49ers are allowing the most points per game in the NFL in home games (34.7).
    • The Cardinals are averaging an NFL-worst 63.4 rushing yards per game.
    • The Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games on the road against teams with losing records.
    • The Cardinals are 5-0 SU in their last five games against the 49ers.
    • The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the 49ers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Cardinals' last four games against the 49ers. The average combined score in those games was 40.5.
    • The 49ers are 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
    • The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six divisional home games.
    • The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
    • The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
    • The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorite.
    • The Cardinals are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games in November.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cardinals' last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
    Chiefs at Cowboys
    • Over their last three games, the Cowboys rank seventh in net yards per play. The Chiefs rank 26th over that span.
    • The Chiefs are averaging a league-best 34.5 points per game on the road.
    • The Chiefs are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road against the Cowboys.
    • The visiting team is 1-7 SU in the last eight games in this matchup.
    • The Cowboys are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home.
    • The Cowboys are 19-7 SU in their last 26 games at home after consecutive road games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Cowboys' last 21 games in Week 9.
    • The Chiefs are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
    • The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home in November.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Chiefs' last five games in the late afternoon.
    • The Chiefs are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in November.
    • The Chiefs are 29-8 SU in their last 37 games.
    • The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
    Raiders at Dolphins
    • The Dolphins are averaging a league-low 13.1 points per game and rank 31st in net yards per play.
    • The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Dolphins.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Raiders' last four games against the Dolphins.
    • The Raiders are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Dolphins.
    • The Dolphins are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games when hosting a West Coast team.
    • The Raiders are 4-20 SU in their last 24 games on the East Coast.
    • The Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games at home in November.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Dolphins' last eight games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Raiders' last eight games on the road.
    • The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road in November.
    • The Raiders are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on the road after failing to cover in their two most recent road games.
    • The Dolphins are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home against teams with losing records.
    • The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at night.
    Lions at Packers
    • The Lions are 1-25 SU and 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road vs the Packers.
    • Matthew Stafford threw for 347 yards in his last game against the Packers.
    • Over their last three games, the Lions are averaging an NFL-low 62.3 rushing yards per game.
    • The Lions are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games at night.
    • The Packers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games following their bye week.
    • The Lions are 4-19 SU in their last 23 games against the Packers.
    • The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Packers.
    • The Lions are 4-24 SU in their last 28 games on the road in November.
    • The Packers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home.
    • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Packers' last 14 games. The average combined score in those games was 52.1
    • The Packers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Lions' last 10 games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 40.6.
    • The Packers are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS losses.
    • The Lions are 4-1 SU in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after a loss.
    Bills at Jets
    • The Bills have been an outright loser in four of their last five games as a road favorite.
    • Over their last three games, the Bills rank 29th in net yards per play and are allowing a league-worst 338 passing yards per game.
    • The Bills are 3-16 SU in their last 19 games at night.
    • The Bills are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Jets.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bills' last six games against the Jets. The average combined score in those games was 43.3.
    • The Bills are 2-5 SU in their last seven games on the road against the Jets.
    • The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home.
    • The Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven divisional home games.
    • The Bills are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games after consecutive wins.
    • The Jets are 2-7 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Bills are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bills' last 10 games after a win.
    • The Jets are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games at night.

     

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