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NFL Wild Card Betting Trends Analysis

The Cincinnati Bengals have made the playoffs each of the previous four years with the same result - a loss and non-cover. The common denominator has been quarterback Andy Dalton. He has been the quarterback every time and has played beyond bad.

Dalton's quarterback rating in his four playoff appearances are 20.8, 11.0, 14.5 and 68.9 with a one-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bengals host Pittsburgh in a Wild Card playoff game Saturday night. The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites based in part on the Bengals likely starting backup AJ McCarron. Dalton has been sidelined with a broken thumb.

But can McCarron be worse than Dalton? He's one of the better backups in the league and has a healthy A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. Road teams have not fared well during the Wild Card playoffs going 28-52 and 31-47-2 (40 percent) against the spread (ATS) during the past 20 years. Counting the last four years, visiting Wild Card playoff teams are 5-11 straight-up (SU) and ATS.

The UNDER Has Been a Wild Card Trend

UNDER the total has been a trend, too, during recent Wild Card playoff action. The UNDER is 9-2-1 (82 percent) the last three years.

Kansas City is the hottest team winning 10 in a row going 7-3 ATS. The Chiefs, however, are 0-8 SU and ATS during their last eight playoff games with the last one coming two seasons ago in Andy Reid's first season. That was a 45-44 road loss to Indianapolis when the Chiefs were minus two. Kansas City blew a 28-point lead. The Chiefs are three-point road favorites against Houston.

Seattle has been bet up to 5.5-point road favorites against Minnesota. The Seahawks certainly appear dangerous going 6-1 down the stretch with all of their victories by nine or more points during this span. The Vikings, however, have won nine of their last 11 home games and are 9-1 ATS the last 10 times as underdogs.

Washington is the lone home favorite this week, although the Redskins are only minus one versus Green Bay. The Packers are 3-11-1 ATS the past 15 times as underdogs. The Redskins are 0-5 ATS as home chalk.

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