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Nover: How to Beat NFL Thursday Games

Want to know the secret on how to beat NFL Thursday night games? It's a simple handicap: Go with the experienced head coach. They know how to get their teams ready during a short turnaround week.
 
Teams with an experienced coach are 8-0 against the spread this season when going against a first or second year coach on Thursday night, taking advantage of inexperienced head coaches that haven't been in this unique spot before.
 
Jacksonville is the latest example. The Jaguars defeated Tennessee, 19-13, as three-point home favorites on Thursday. Gus Bradley is in his third season coaching the Jaguars, while Mike Mularkey was coaching just his third game with the Titans after replacing fired Ken Whisenhunt.

RYAN AND BILLS UPSET JETS AS UNDERDOGS
 

The week before veteran coach Rex Ryan and his Buffalo Bills upset the New York Jets as 2.5-point road underdogs. Todd Bowles is the Jets' first year head coach.
 
Just two weeks ago, Cincinnati under 13-year head man Marvin Lewis wiped out Cleveland and its second-year coach Mike Pettine, 31-10, as 13-point home favorites.
 
This trend began in Week 3 when Tom Coughlin's New York Giants rolled over Washington, coached by second-year man Jay Gruden, 32-21, as three-point home favorites. The next instance was in Week 5 when Indianapolis, with third-year head man Chuck Pagano, defeated Houston, 27-20, as five-point road favorites. The Texans are coached by Bill O'Brien, in his second season as coach.
 
Then in Week 6 New Orleans behind Sean Payton upset Atlanta and its rookie coach Dan Quinn, 31-21, getting three points at home.
 
Pete Carroll's Seattle Seahawks kept the trend alive in Week 7 winning on the road, 20-3, as 6.5-point favorites versus San Francisco and its first-year coach Jim Tomsula.

BELICHICK AND PATRIOTS BURIED DOLPHINS
 

New England and Bill Belichick were up next in Week 8 facing Miami and its interim coach Dan Campbell, who was coaching his third game after replacing Joe Philbin. The Patriots buried the Dolphins, 36-7, laying eight at home in a clear coaching mismatch.
 
The concept may be simple, but the markets haven't caught on providing a handicapping factor that has held up all eight times this season.

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