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Nover: Sportsbooks in Danger for SB50?

Only twice have Nevada sportsbooks lost money on a Super Bowl game since the state gaming control board started tracking betting action in 1991.

It's estimated Nevada won more than $134 million from Super Bowls during this span with the only losing Super Bowls being in 2008 when the New York Giants upset New England and in 1995 when San Francisco covered an 18.5-point spread against San Diego.

But if the Carolina Panthers were to beat the Denver Broncos by five or six points, sportsbooks could be in danger of losing in Super Bowl 50.

Early Wagering Raises Number For Panthers

Through the first week of wagering there has been so much more money bet on the Panthers that bookmakers have raised the number from Carolina minus 4.5 up to minus six.

Most of the money - more than 90 percent - will come during the final 48 hours leading up to kickoff. If that money remains one-sided on Carolina then the house will be forced to move the line even more to Denver plus 6.5. That would open a two-point middle for those who laid 4.5 points and took back plus 6.5 points.

As it currently stands, bookmakers would lose on the spread if the Panthers win by six or more and lose or get sided if the Panthers win by exactly five points. Considering that $4.2 billion is the estimated dollar amount to be bet on Super Bowl 50, according to the American Gaming Association, bookmakers stand to get beat up bad if that scenario happens.

Bookmakers Can Offset Some Vulnerability

Bookmakers have heavily-juiced Super Bowl prop wagers and can play around with moneyline prices to offset some of their vulnerability. Bettors have a tendency to wager on the underdog on the moneyline. This often has meant value laying the favorite on the moneyline. That may be reversed this time with the house trying to encourage Broncos money to even the action.

You can still find a Panthers moneyline, for instance, at minus $2.20. That price is likely to go up much higher where in previous Super Bowls the best time to shop a moneyline favorite was game day.

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