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Texans Run Defense Should be the Difference vs Raiders

Much has been made about the Texans’ and Raiders’ quarterback situations coming into this game, but we won’t waste your time analyzing Matt McGloin’s backup vs Tom Savage’s backup because this game will ultimately be decided on the ground. Oddsmakers agree that this won’t be a fast-paced, high-scoring game as it opened with a total of 36.5, which is the lowest of any NFL game this season.

Shark Bites
  • The visiting team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games in this matchup.
  • The Raiders are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs.
  • The Texans are 6-2 SU in their last eight games after a loss.

If this game truly comes down to run game vs run game, it would appear as if Houston has a significant advantage. In their last nine games this season, the Texans allowed just three total rushing touchdowns and 72 rush yards per game. They easily shut down the Raiders’ rush attack in Week 11, holding them to just 30 yards on 20 attempts. The Texans were productive at running the ball in that game as Lamar Miller — who’ll be active on Saturday — ran for 104 yards and a touchdown.

A big-time trend also points to the Texans, who are a favorite in the 3.5-point range, as they’ve gone 18-2 SU in their last 20 games as a favorite, covering the spread in 14 of those games. As a road underdog, however, the Raiders have been money, posting an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games in that spot. If you’re thinking upset in this one, you’ll be interested to know that Oakland had three outright wins as a road dog this season. We might be able to throw those Raiders trends out the window, though, as they’re clearly a much different team without Derek Carr.

As for that season-low total, it might not be low enough as the Texans have gone UNDER in nine of their last 12 home games. Houston scored 20 or fewer points 10 times this season and the McGloin/Cook QB combo for the Raiders was only able to lead the team to six points in Week 17.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Betting fans looking to side with the Houston Texans in this one found them as -1.5-point favorites earlier in the week at Bovada, while the total was sitting at 36.5.

NFL prediction models run by the computers at Odds Shark picked a 27-14 result in favor of the Texans earlier in the week. Watch matchup reports and the picks page for any changes, due to injuries or suspensions this week. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Houston battles the Oakland Raiders, currently with a 12-4 mark (10-6 ATS). The over under records, important for totals betting, are 6-10 for the Texans and 11-5 for the Raiders. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Houston vs Oakland injuries news.

The Power Rankings at Odds Shark have the No. 7-rated Oakland Raiders taking on the No. 25-rated Houston Texans in this betting contest.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Houston's No. 29-ranked offense, averaging 17.44 PPG, against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 20 this week at 24.06 PPG. The Texans aerial game is averaging 198.5 yards per game, less than the Raiders secondary allows through the air, 257.5 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Oakland Raiders own the league's No. 15-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 110.88 yards per game when on the road. Houston, on the other hand, rates No. 15 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, the Raiders were Week 17 losers coming out on the wrong end of 24-6 score against Denver.

DeAndre Hopkins hauled in 7 passes for 123 yards against the Tennessee defense in the team's last game, but the result was a 24-17 loss against the Titans on Sunday.

Betting Trends
  • Oakland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Oakland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 10 games
  • Oakland is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
  • Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
  • Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Oakland home to , Wednesday, December 31st
Houston home to , Wednesday, December 31st

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