There is an old sports betting adage that says, “If you aren’t capping refs, you simply aren’t capping.”
OK, that’s not an adage, but personally I’m a firm believer that you need to be at least on nodding terms with the crew that will be officiating the game you want to wager your hard-earned money on. This is most important in baseball more so than any other sport but it’s also beneficial in football and is an aspect that should not go overlooked.
Carl Cheffers and crew will be officiating Super Bowl LI between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons and as I dug into his numbers, I found something that could potentially be of interest if you’re betting Sunday’s game, which you clearly are.
Cheffers has been a referee since the 2008 season and over that stretch, he’s worked eight Patriots games. Now, it should come as no surprise that the Pats have gone 6-2 straight up in those eight games, but they have gone just 2-5-1 against the spread. For a team that has been profitable (55% ATS regular season win rate) in the six different seasons that Cheffers has worked a Pats game (2008-11, 2013, 2015), that stands out.
| Date | Away (Score) | Home (Score) | Patriots Spread | Closing Total | Total Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 September 2015 | Steelers (21) | Patriots (28) | -7.0 | 51.0 | U |
| 12 September 2013 | Jets (10) | Patriots (13) | -11.0 | 43.5 | U |
| 25 September 2011 | Patriots (31) | Bills (34) | -7.0 | 53.0 | O |
| 14 November 2010 | Patriots (39) | Steelers (26) | +4.5 | 44.5 | O |
| 12 September 2010 | Bengals (24) | Patriots (38) | -5.0 | 44.5 | O |
| 11 October 2009 | Patriots (17) | Broncos (20) | -3.0 | 41.0 | U |
| 7 December 2008 | Patriots (24) | Seahawks (21) | -7.0 | 43.0 | O |
| 7 September 2008 | Chiefs (10) | Patriots (17) | -16.0 | 43.0 | U |
The Patriots covered the spread in both games Cheffers worked in the 2010 regular season (versus Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh) but that’s it. They have failed to cover the number in three straight Cheffers games (2011 at Buffalo, 2013 versus the New York Jets, 2015 versus Pittsburgh) heading into Super Bowl LI, though they did push last year versus the Steelers.
Now, as evidenced by the chart below, there is nothing out of the ordinary for the games he’s worked this season, (faves 9-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U):
| Date | Away (Score) | Home (Score) | Closing Home Spread | Closing Total | Total Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 January 2017 | Steelers (18) | Chiefs (16) | -2.5 | 45.0 | U |
| 1 January 2017 | Panthers (16) | Buccaneers (17) | -3.0 | 44.5 | U |
| 24 December 2016 | Bengals (10) | Texans (12) | -3.0 | 41.0 | U |
| 18 December 2016 | Saints (48) | Cardinals (41) | -3.0 | 48.0 | O |
| 11 December 2016 | Cowboys (7) | Giants (10) | 3.5 | 47.0 | U |
| 4 December 2016 | Dolphins (6) | Ravens (38) | -3.5 | 41.5 | O |
| 24 November 2016 | Vikings (13) | Lions (16) | -2.0 | 42.0 | U |
| 20 November 2016 | Eagles (15) | Seahawks (26) | -6.5 | 43.0 | U |
| 13 November 2016 | Chiefs (20) | Panthers (17) | -3.0 | 44.0 | U |
| 30 October 2016 | Redskins (27) | Bengals (27) | -3.0 | 48.5 | O |
| 24 October 2016 | Texans (9) | Broncos (27) | -8.5 | 40.0 | U |
| 16 October 2016 | Browns (26) | Titans (28) | -7.5 | 44.5 | O |
| 6 October 2016 | Cardinals (33) | 49ers (21) | 3.5 | 43.0 | O |
| 2 October 2016 | Seahawks (27) | Jets (17) | 1.0 | 40.0 | O |
| 25 September 2016 | Lions (27) | Packers (34) | -6.5 | 47.5 | O |
| 18 September 2016 | Jaguars (14) | Chargers (38) | -3.0 | 47.5 | O |
| 11 September 2016 | Packers (27) | Jaguars (23) | 4.5 | 47.0 | O |
Worth noting, however, is that nice run of UNDERs Cheffers' games have gone on entering Super Bowl Sunday. Seven of the last nine and three straight games have resulted in cashed UNDER tickets thanks to an average of just 38.4 combined points scored per game.
Referee stats and numbers should never be the foundation of your wager, but there's certainly some instances where it can be good support for your bet. The Pats are normally a +.500 ATS team and when you can isolate a number like a 2-5-1 ATS clip like this, it's something that should be noted.
While Carl Cheffers and crew are certainly one of the better and more respected groups in the league, it will be interesting to see if the Patriots' ATS struggles continue with this ensemble working.
No matter where your bets go this Sunday, best of luck.
