Spread Climbs in Pats vs Bills Odds
After losing two straight games, the New England Patriots will try to get back on track against a team they always have success against when they visit the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday.
New England is 18-2 SU and 13-6-1 ATS against the Buffalo Bills since 2002 and 10-2 in their past 12 visits there. The Patriots are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games as a road favorite.
And they didn't lay a lot of points on the Week 4 opening lines. Most books had them as 3.5-point road favorites but it had been bet up to -4.5 at Bovada by mid-week.
The Patriots were listed as 3.5-point favorites at sportsbooks such as TopBet, with the total listed at 50.5.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The game pits the Bills, currently No. 17 in our OddsShark NFL Power Rankings, against the Patriots, who rate No. 3 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 32-29 victory for the Patriots.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Buffalo's No. 6-ranked offense, averaging 29 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 10 this week at 21.3 PPG. The Bills aerial game is averaging 193 yards per game, less than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 262 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Patriots own the league's No. 7-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 70.5 yards per game when on the road. Buffalo, on the other hand, rates No. 3 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Last time out for New England, they were a 31-30 loser as they battled the Ravens on the road. The Patriots covered in the match as a 2.5-point underdog, while 61 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. In New England's last outing, Tom Brady threw for 335 yards in a losing cause against the Ravens, 31-30 at M&T Bank Stadium.
In their last action, Buffalo was a 24-14 winner on the road against the Browns. They covered the 2.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (38) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. Last time out, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 3 scores and 208 yards in leading his team past Cleveland at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 8-2
Buffalo Bills Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 2-8
A few Patriots at Bills trends to consider:
New England is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 14 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Buffalo's last 25 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
New England home to Denver, Sunday, October 7
Buffalo at San Francisco, Sunday, October 7