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The Pick 6: Week 3

WHAT A WEEK. I only missed on my teaser and wound up 5-for-6 and up about seven units with that Thursday Night Football parlay easily hitting on both fronts.

Because of that, I’m going back to the well to start The Pick 6 with yet another parlay for a Thursday game that I expect to be absolute liquid garbage.

The Pick: Rams vs 49ers UNDER 39.5 and 49ers +3 parlay (+255)

The Stat: The Rams are 1-7-1 SU in their last nine games in San Francisco and their last four games in the Bay Area all went UNDER.

Everybody is telling me I’m stupid for taking the Niners here and that makes sense when you consider that 64 percent of the public is on the Rams. San Fran gets it done against divisional opponents in the Bay Area, though.

Not only are they 18-6-1 straight up in their last 25 games against the NFC West, they went 2-1 against the spread in their three divisional games last season alone.

As far as the UNDER is concerned, I think I might just ride it on Thursday Night Football (I don’t count Pats-Chiefs) until it fails to cash.

The Pick: Saints vs Panthers OVER 47 (-105)

The Stat: The total has gone OVER in the Saints’ last five games and two of the last three games between the Saints and Panthers have finished with a total of exactly 79 points.

I don’t understand this total. When the Saints and Panthers get together they score a ton of points and the New Orleans defense could be worse than it was last season. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey will get going against the Saints and I’m betting they score at least 30 themselves.

While the Saints offense hasn’t been putting the ball in the end zone, it’s been racking up yards and getting late points. Carolina will win this game early, forcing Drew Brees to challenge the Cats deep down the field and that will lead to scores one way or another.

The Pick: 6.5-Point Teaser: Patriots -7, Raiders +3.5, Eagles +0.5, Cowboys vs Cardinals UNDER 53.5 (+225)

The Stats: 1. The Texans are 0-5 SU and ATS in five games in New England in which they have an average losing margin of 23.8. 2. The Raiders have a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 road games. 3. The Eagles are 14-6 SU and ATS in their last 20 games against the Giants. 4. Six of the Cowboys’ last seven road games as underdogs went UNDER their total.

Once again, I absolutely love my teaser. I’m starting to see a trend developing here. Most of my picks are pretty straightforward – let’s tease.

1. The Pats have smashed the Texans every time they’ve hosted them and that Deshaun Watson is not keeping up with Tom Brady, I don’t care how good Houston’s defense is.

2. I think the Raiders are going to come away from Washington with an emphatic win. They’re better on both sides of the ball.

3. The Eagles don’t lose to the Giants and the G-Men are awful. They have no offensive line and the defense isn’t as good as I thought it was. I love the Eagles here but I don't know if they cover six points.

4. The Cowboys and Cardinals are both bad football teams – especially on offense. I don’t see either team breaking 24 points in this one and UNDER 52 seems like a lock.

The Pick: Broncos SU (-170)

The Stat: The Bills are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games as underdogs.

Did you watch these two teams play last week? Wow, there’s a big gap in the talent between the Broncos and Bills. While Denver will be much better at home because of the elevation, they should easily eke out a win in Buffalo.

I’m not sure they blow the Bills away, though, so I’m just taking the chalk on the Broncos moneyline.

The Pick: Seahawks +3 (-125)

The Stat: The Seahawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as underdogs.

This is the stupidest line on the board and it’s not close. Everyone is overreacting to the Seahawks’ first two games and many have written them off already. Make no mistake, the Seahawks are still a very good, well-coached football team and they’re still going to win the NFC West.

Four of their games this season come against crappy AFC South teams and the most difficult of those will come against the Titans this week. The ’Hawks were two-touchdown favorites just a week ago and the public heavily bet them on that line.

Don’t be a flake, take Seattle with the points.

The Pick: Falcons vs Lions OVER 50.5 (-110)

The Stat: The total is 13-0 in the Falcons’ last 13 games inside a dome.

This is my guaranteed play of the week. If I get it wrong, feel free to harass me on Twitter, YouTube or in the comment section of this article.

I just don’t see how this game doesn’t go OVER. The Falcons offense seems like it hasn’t missed a beat with Steve Sarkisian in the mix and Matt Stafford has looked incredible through two weeks.

Matt Ryan just performs in domes. During that 13-game streak where every game he’s played inside has gone OVER, his team has averaged 36 points. Assuming this trend doesn’t come to an abrupt stop on Sunday, the Lions have to score just 15 points to tip the scale. I’m confident they can do that as they’re averaging 29.5 points per game so far this year.

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