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Spread favors Broncos over the Chiefs

The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs just met for a big AFC battle two weeks ago, with the Broncos coming away with a 27-17 victory.

That game must have taken a lot out of both teams, because they both then lost their next games. 

The Broncos and Chiefs meet for the second time in three weeks Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium (4:25 pm ET, CBS). After beating KC two weeks ago Denver went to New England Sunday, blew a 24-0 lead and lost in overtime to the Patriots 34-31.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, went home after losing at Denver and lost to San Diego 41-38.

So the Broncos and Chiefs are tied for the best record in the AFC at 9-2. But if the playoffs started today Denver, which owns the head-to-head tie-breaker, would be the two seed, while KC would be the five seed.

So there's a whole lot at stake for this, the 107th meeting between these two AFL originals. In the early betting the Chiefs were getting 3.5 points as home dogs for Sunday's game at Bovada.

The Chiefs sport a record of 9-2 and 6-5 ATS heading into this matchup, while the Broncos sit at 9-2 and 6-5 ATS on the season. The over under records are 3-8 for the Chiefs and 9-2 for the Broncos.

View Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds and Stats.

Kansas City opened as 2.5-point underdogs at shops such as Bovada, while the NFL total was set at 48.5 for over under betting at 5Dimes.

The Chiefs sit at No. 8 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark, while the Broncos are at No. 1 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Broncos will win this game 36-32.

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In their last action, Denver was a 34-31 loser on the road against the Patriots. They failed to cover the 2-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (65) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Knowshon Moreno went over the 100-yard mark (224) in his team's latest effort, but New England still defeated Denver by a score of 34-31. Last time out, Alex Smith threw for 3 scores and 294 yards in a failed effort to defeat San Diego at Arrowhead Stadium.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Kansas City's No. 12-ranked offense (24.55 PPG) against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 26 at 26.27 PPG. The Chiefs passing attack has averaged 206 yards per game, less than the Broncos give up through the air (283.18 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Broncos feature the league's No. 5-rated road run defense, allowing 88.6 yards per game. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranks No. 16 in rushing offense at home.

A few Broncos at Chiefs trends to consider:
Denver is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games
Denver is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 12 games
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Kansas City's last 19 games
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Next up:
Denver home to Tennessee, Sunday, December 8th
Kansas City at Washington, Sunday, December 8th