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Point spread favors Falcons over Colts

Even before Peyton Manning was lost for the 2011 season, the Indianapolis Colts had struggled as an underdog.

Now, the Colts have lost 10 straight as a dog and opened as 8-point home pups against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9 NFL wagering action. And even when they were winning, the Colts were not a good bet at home in November (8-1 SU, but 1-8 ATS past 9 games).

Atlanta comes off its bye week in good shape and historically has been a good bet in November, going 8-3 ATS in past few seasons.

They have been even better on the road at 14-4-1 ATS in 19 games. And while this is not a regular Colts team so the trends are questionable, the Falcons are 1-6 SU vs Indy since 1986.

View Atlanta vs Indianapolis Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
The Colts are listed as 8-point underdogs at sportsbooks, with the total listed at 45. You can get the Falcons at just -6.5 over at BetOnline while the best under and underdog line was at Bovada.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
The OddsShark Power Rankings have the Colts at No. 32 and the Falcons at No. 16 heading into this contest. Handicapping models project a 22-7 result in favor of the Falcons.

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How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Indianapolis's No. 30-ranked offense (15.1 PPG) against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 20 at 23.3 PPG. The Colts passing attack has averaged 192.8 yards per game, less than the Falcons give up through the air (265.6 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Falcons feature the league's No. 4-rated road run defense, allowing 90 yards per game. Indianapolis, meanwhile, ranks No. 28 in rushing offense at home.

Atlanta won its last outing, a 23-16 result against the Lions on October 23. The Falcons covered in that game as a 4.5-point underdog, while the 39 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Detroit was unable to contain Michael Turner in its last action Sunday and the result was a 23-16 Week 7 loss against the Falcons.

In their last action, Indianapolis was a 27-10 loser on the road against the Titans. They failed to cover the 7.5–point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (37) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. The Colts suffered a Week 8 loss against Tennessee in their last game, falling 27-10 at LP Field.

Atlanta Falcons Trends:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 7-3

Indianapolis Colts Trends:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 1-9

A few Falcons at Colts trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home

Next up:
Atlanta home to New Orleans, Sunday, November 13
Indianapolis home to Jacksonville, Sunday, November 13