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Rapid Capping For NFL Week 11

Every week I break down every game in the NFL rom a betting perspective in just a few lines each. I also give my opinions for every game to help you speedily handicap for your pools and plays. 

Week 11

Lions at Bears +3, 41 – Bears are 9-1 ATS last 10 as a home dog, which is good. But Mitch Trubisky is not good, so that’s bad. The Lions rank third-worst in yards per play in rushing in the NFL and Stafford has been hit the fifth-most, yet still Stafford is throwing for the most yards-per play over the last three games in the NFL. I declare, therefore, Stafford is amazing. The Bears, on the other hand, reach the red zone less than any team in the NFL at 1.7 times per game and it’s been worse under Trubisky at 1.0 per game.. Bears now have six starters on defense who are either out or questionable for Sunday. Don’t think the Bears can score enough to keep up.

Chiefs at Giants +10.5, 46 – The Chiefs and are coming off a bye and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as road faves. If the line closes at 12 or higher, it will be the biggest road chalk spot ever for them. KC has lost three of four in part because they went from averaging 156 rushing yards per game during their 5-game winning streak and 67 rushing ypg since. Also because they faced the toughest sked in the NFL and it catches up. Game mismatch here though: Giants are the worst D in the NFL in pass yards per play over the past three games while KC is the second best completion percentage team. I think this one goes OVER. The Giants are the only team to have not covered a spread at home this year. 

Bucs at Dolphins 0, 41.5 -  Miami has the worst scoring margin in the NFL over the past three games at -22.3. But they have a +2.0 scoring margin at home, which is why they opened as field-goal faves here. That number was too many and I’ll give Miami the slight edge at home as the pick. 

Ravens at Packers +2, 38 – Believe it or not, Baltimore is the hottest OVER team in the NFL with five straight OVERs. They just keep seeing really low totals and here’s another one. Baltimore has the No. 3 pass D in the league but Brett Hundley is getting more comfortable every game. I’ll say OVER.  

Rams at Vikings -2.5, 46 – Vikings a very quiet 6-3 ATS this year. And yet again have a low spread. The Vikings are 21-6 against the spread in their last 27 home games. Incredible. Defense ranks in the top 5 or 6 in most categories including No. 3 scoring D. The O-line has the biggest improvement from last year though. Second-fewest sacks in the NFL with 10 behind only New Orleans (8), top third in QB hits (45) and eighth in yards per play (5.6). Gimme the defense versus the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. These are two over teams this NFL season, btw. Me likes the Vikes. 

Cardinals at Texans -1, 38.5 – These two teams have the worst completion percentage in the NFL over the past three games. So this total is low for a reason and in a passing league and that’s enough to look hard at the UNDER. Drew Stanton is looking like he’ll be healthy enough to play but if not, Blaine Gabbert is the QB for Arizona. Blech. 

Jags at Browns -7.5, 37.5 – Jags have a +20.8 scoring differential on the road, tops in the NFL by a field goal. Pretty incredible number. Cleveland has the No. 4 rushing D in yards per game in the NFL so this might be as good of a matchup as they can hope for because the Jags try to be you with the run almost exclusively. It’s going to be windy in Cleveland, too (20 mph winds). Jacksonville has been a road chalk of 8 points just once since 2000 and are 3-1 SU, ATS on the road. Ugh. Maybe UNDER and maybe Browns here, yikes. 

Redskins at Saints -8, 51.5 – This is a stay away game for me. The Skins are healing up on the O-line, though they have a bunch of questionables on D. Washington is the second-least penalized team in yards in the NFL, which I like against a disciplined Saints team. The Saints have won seven in a row and covered six of those but the Skins have covered the last five meetings. This is a tricky one. I’ll say OVER.   

Bills at Chargers -4.5, 43.5 – The O-line is getting thin with starting tackle Joe Barksdale out this week and starting center Matt Slauson out the last few weeks. That’s not good with Philip Rivers in concussion protocol and questionable for this one. Feels like too many points. Bills are replacing Tyrod Taylor with Nathan Peterman at QB.  I like the move. 

Bengals at Broncos  -2.5, 39.5 – Denver is the coldest bet in the NFL with five straight dropped covers. They’ve allowed 121 points over their last three games and they can’t seem to get a QB to throw for  more TDs than INTs in a game. Andy Dalton is no prize this season but he doesn’t turn the ball over as much and will get you some touchdowns. UNDER and I can’t take Denver with any confidence. Check the Bengals injuries on D before gametime also.  

Pats at Raiders +7, 55 – Pats have won five in a row and covered four of those while four have also gone UNDER. Big part of that is the pass D is coming around. Derek Carr is completing a career best 65.2% of his passes since returning from injury. Starting center David Andrews missed some practice this week with an illness so that’s a big injury to keep an eye on for Sunday. Raiders coming off a bye and this is their second straight year playing in Mexico City, which is a big deal because of the altitude. The Raiders rank 28th in yards allowed this year, worst in sacks and worst in QB passer rating allowed (110.4 per game). Think this goes OVER. 

Eagles at Cowboys +4.5, 48  - Zeke being out is obviously the biggest factor in this one. He’s scored nine TDs for Dallas this season and without him they tied their worst offensive output in two seasons last game in a 27-7 loss to Atlanta. The Eagles have won seven straight, covered six straight and are coming off a bye. It’s going to be a very public play but gimme the Eagles.  

Falcons at Seahawks -3, 44.5 – Seattle is the most penalized team in the NFL and it’s by over 13 yards per game. And over their last three they’re averaging 122 yards per game in flags. That’s a lot. I don’t think the Seahawks will miss Richard Sherman much and they get a huge boost with Earl Thomas back. But they are also banged up on an already-bad O-line. Devonta Freeman is doubtful for the Falcons. Both of these are UNDER teams at 3-6 O/U apiece. Seattle plays worse offense at home and Atlanta plays better D on the road this year. I’m looking UNDER.  

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