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Rapid Capping For NFL Week 12

First I handicapped the Thanksgiving Day games right here for you. And here are the rest with my picks and opinions for every remaining game. 

Make this part of your weekly reading to help you handicap the NFL like an expert in record time. 

Titans at Colts +3.5, 44 – The Colts say they expect Jacoby Brissett to start. But he’s concussed in the first place because this O-line has given up the most sacks (39) and QB hits (82) in the NFL. Still, I kinda like the dog here coming off a bye that’s 4-1 ATS at home. The Colts defense is getting better, allowing fewer than 300 yards per game over its last three. Meanwhile, this Titans team seems to be on the decline and amazingly is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Colts. Delanie Walker, Titans TE: “Everybody’s piss is hot right now.” ... So either there’s an infection going around the locker room or Tennessee is upset.   

Panthers at Jets +4.5, 40 – The OVER is 25-17 in non-conference games this year and this is a low total so keep that in mind. The Panthers are coming off back-to-back 200-yard rushing games for the first time in franchise history, which means the Jets need to stop the run. And they are actually pretty good at doing that at home (105 yards against per game). They are also the best bet on home field in the NFL at 5-0 ATS. I don’t like the Panthers’ -7 turnover margin either. I’ll take the dog. 

Bucs at Falcons -10, 48.5 – The Falcons have lost their last two games outright as a double-digit favorite and I think it could be three in a row. This line is inflated after an overstated win against an ailing 6-4 Seattle team on the road on Monday. Tampa Bay is taking better care of the ball on offense under Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and the defense is allowing fewer red-zone TDs their last three games (33.3 percent). 

Bears at Eagles -13.5, 44 – The Bears have a ton of injuries on defense which is a big factor why they’re allowing a QB passer rating of 108.0 over their last three games. They failed to win or cover all three – troubling numbers vs Carson Wentz and the highest-scoring team in the NFL on the road. The Eagles have covered seven straight so you know this line is inflated but is it still enough? Doubt it. Eagles on a teaser is going to be a popular play and I won’t argue with it. 

Bills at Chiefs -10, 45 – Ugh. Chiefs looked awful in the loss as double-digit faves to the Giants last week but I think the wind played a part in hurting Alex Smith’s passing game. Still, I’d say there are about 2 or 3 points of overcompensation with Nathan Peterman’s horrible performance last week with 5 INTs in his first career start for Buffalo. (Tyrod Taylor is expected to start this week.) The Bills defense has seemed to have gone down the tubes with this offense and Buffalo is allowing – gulp – 45 points per game over its last three. I like the OVER here with a KC defense that ranks in the bottom five in the NFL in passing yards against and rushing yards against. 

Dolphins at Patriots -16.5, 48 – This is the No. 4 scoring team and No. 1 passing team in the NFL going up against the second-lowest scoring team. Add to that the fact the Pats are playing way better defense. This has led to the Pats covering five of their last six while the same number of those went UNDER. This is the second-biggest spread the Dolphins have faced since 2007 and the Fish are 0-8 and 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New England. The Pats killed Oakland last week – the team with the worst opponent QB passer rating in the NFL. Guess who is second-worst in that category? Miami. 

Browns at Bengals -8, 38 – The Browns are 7-28-1 ATS in their last 36 games. So, for the love of God, just bet against them. Even last week when a cover seemed imminent, they threw it away with a last-minute drop-six to allow the Jags to cover. 

Seahawks at 49ers +7, 43 – The 49ers are coming off their first win of the season and we aren’t sure yet who’ll start at QB. But I promised I’d never bet on the Seahawks again three weeks ago and I won’t. They have key injuries on D, they haven’t covered in any of their last four games and they barely beat a Niners team 12-9 at home in Week 2 that was worse than it is now. 

Broncos at Raiders -5, 43.5 – The Broncos are the worst bet in the NFL right now, dropping their last six against the spread. It’s no secret that it’s the offense and terrible QB play. They have only scored more than 16 points in a game once in their last eight. The defense is suffering now too, allowing 60 more yards per game and close to 2 TDs more per game over its last three. Paxton Lynch will start. He might have more success against a Raiders team that has the worst opponent QBR in the NFL. The Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight but I think they cover this one.   

Jaguars at Cardinals +4.5, 38 – I don’t know how you don’t take the Jags here. The Cardinals have injuries at QB, WR, OL, DL – you name it. I think Blaine Gabbert struggles at QB against the top scoring and passing D in the NFL. The Jags are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight on the road. 

Saints at Rams -2.5, 53.5 – The Saints have several injuries on D and it showed last week by allowing a banged-up Skins team to score 31. The other thing I didn’t like is Drew Brees was sacked twice and hurried many other times, something we haven’t seen much of this season. The Rams are without their top WR Robert Woods but I think they still hold the injury advantage. Hard not to love the OVER here with the No. 2 and 3 scoring offenses in the league. 

Packers at Steelers -14, 41.5 – The Steelers just aren’t letting anyone score right now. Opponents have scored on just 14 percent of their trips inside the red zone over the last three games. Which is why they are favored by the most points since 2011. The Packers are double-digit dogs for the first time since 2010. They’re 1-4 ATS in their last five.  

Texans at Ravens -7, 38 – The Ravens have seen a little improvement with the passing game. That’s why the OVER is 5-1 in their last six but the Ravens still own the worst yards per play mark in the NFL. They also own the second-best yards per play on defense over their last three (3.9) so that’s why this total is so low. The Texans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Monday nighters and faves are covering in prime time this season at a 68 percent rate. I’ll take the fave and the UNDER. 

For my picks and thoughts on the three Thanksgiving Day games, click here.

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