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Rapid Capping For NFL Week 16

I handicap every game in the NFL in just a few lines for Week 16.  

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23  

Colts at Ravens -14, 41.5 – The Colts are just 2-5-1 ATS on the road this season and come into this one on a five-game SU losing streak and a four-game ATS skid. The UNDER has also cashed in six straight Colts games – a byproduct of their 30th-ranked passing offense that hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in its last four outings. This is a big number, though, and the Ravens are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine as a double-digit home fave, despite winning all nine of those games. The Colts have also covered the last seven against the Ravens. You know this is an inflated number for a Ravens team that’s covered three straight and five of its last seven. I lean Colts. 

Vikings at GB +9, 40.5 – We have to go allll the way back to 1986 to find a game where Green Bay was an underdog at home of anywhere close to this number. The Packers were +9.5 against San Francisco on Oct. 26 that year and lost 31-17. This one was off the board early and Green Bay is now a big dog with Brett Hundley starting at QB and their playoff hopes turned to rotten cheese. The Vikings defense – OMG, the Vikings defense! – just looked terrifying last week in allowing 161 yards against Cincy, the Vikes’ stingiest performance in 11 seasons. They have the No. 1 pass D in the NFL over the last three games and the Packers need the pass to win. Minnesota is only 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 against GB and just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 at Lambeau. I lean Vikings and like the UNDER here.  

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 24

Lions at Bengals +5, 43 – After a game of actually protecting Matt Stafford for a change in Week 14, this Detroit O-line reverted to its dog-meat self in Week 15 and gave up four sacks. Against the Bears. The good news? They’re playing the Bengals. Cincy continues to struggle on offense with the worst rush in the league at an anemic rate of just 77 yards per game. Cincy is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a home dog, though, and has gotta be embarrassed about getting owned in Week 15 in Minnesota. I think this one is actually gonna be close. Bengals. 

Browns at Bears -6.5, 38.5 – Ew! This game won’t be pretty. And if the Bears aren’t ashamed this is the lowest road-dog number Cleveland has seen all season, then they have no pride left. Cleveland, as we know, lost its pride years ago. The Browns have lost 18 straight on the road and are 4-13-1 ATS in those. This is their best shot for a win, though. That’s gonna be tough because the Bears are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at home and this is their last home game of the season. I have a feeling books are going to get a lot of Browns moneyline action on this one (+230). I’m not sure here. Bears? Yeah. Bears. 

Falcons at Saints, -6, 52.5 – The Saints are actually the No. 1 team in our OddsShark Power Rankings. There’s a lot to love about this team. They’re top five in the league in just about every offensive category and they’re No. 6 against the pass on D. Still, New Orleans is only 1-4 ATS in its last five games while Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last six. The Saints are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs the NFC South. Atlanta won a couple of weeks ago when they met but I thought the Saints were the better team on the field and the Falcons benefited from a ton of calls. I like the Saints.   

Dolphins at Chiefs -10, 44 – The Chiefs are leading the NFL in yards per play over their last three games and their defense has allowed only 28 points over its last two. Miami is just awful on the road this season at 2-5 ATS with the worst scoring offense and fifth-worst scoring defense away from home. It’s also supposed to be cold in KC and I pointed out last week that faves cover at 58 percent when it’s 32F or colder over the past four seasons. Second straight freezing game for the Dolphins and they now face a KC O-line that’s playing great football and has the run game steamrolling. Hard not to like the Chiefs, who can’t afford to lose this one. 

Bills at Patriots -12, 47 – I was at Foxborough the last time the Bills played there and the game was so bad, we left and headed to CBS Sports bar to watch the Ryder Cup at halftime. That was the last time the Pats had been shut out at home since 1994 or some such year in a 16-0 loss. The Pats won’t forget that one and neither will the fans. The Bills are 3-22 SU in the last 25 trips to New England and 12 of the last 18 of these also played UNDER. I like the UNDER and lean to the Pats. 

Chargers at Jets +7, 42.5 – The Chargers had a +14 turnover differential over their previous nine games before Saturday’s meeting with the Chiefs, where they went -4 on turnovers. I’m sure ball control will be a big focus this week and you really don’t need to be flashy to beat the Jets with Josh McCown done for the season. It’s why I like the Chargers to win straight up and make a nice teaser option. I’m a little cautious of this number where the Jets are the best home bet in the NFL at 6-1 ATS this season. I do like the UNDER and the Chargers are the best UNDER bet in the NFL this year at 4-10 O/U. 

Broncos at Redskins -3.5, 41 – The Broncos have two wins in a row and the defense seems to be back in form. Early money on Denver has also kept this line down. But we all know Denver’s season is a runaway pony and they’re talking about starting Paxton Lynch for the final two games to give him some experience. The Skins don’t have much to play for but they can finish the season .500 if they win out. I like Washington here going up against the second-worst bet in the NFL this season with Denver at 4-9-1 ATS. The NFC is also 36-22 SU against the AFC this season (29-25-4 ATS). 

L.A. Rams at Tennessee +7, 48 – The Rams are third in the NFL in completion yards per pass attempt (7.6) and I just have no faith in this Titans secondary. The Titans are the worst in the NFL this season in opponent first-down passing percentage (71.4 percent). That’s the worst by almost four percentage points and almost 20 percentage points worse than the best in the league of 52.3 percent (Cincy). Where the Titans have hope is the Rams rush D isn’t very good (24th in the league). I think we’ll see a lotta points here. I like the OVER. 

Jaguars at Niners +4.5, 42.5 – The Niners are certainly the popular bet lately in the NFL. They’re attracting a lot of moneyline action at sportsbooks and they’ve won three in a row. The trouble for San Francisco this week is the Jags own the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. They tend to eat up pass-heavy teams like we saw last week against Houston. The Niners pass more than anybody in the NFL this season with 38.9 pass attempts per game. I think they’re in big trouble and I’m on the Jags here. 

Giants at Cardinals -4.5, 40 – A bit of a weird schedule spot here for Arizona where they played early in the eastern time zone last week – a spot where they are now 0-11 in their last 11 tries. But the Giants are traveling west and it’s no picnic for them either. The Cards are playing tough D lately – 313 ypg against over their last three – and have won the yardage battle in four straight games. There’s some love for the Giants here with Eli Manning back and getting more offense going. But I think this is a low-scoring contest that goes UNDER in a Cards win.  

Seahawks at Cowboys -4.5, 47 – The Seahawks suffered their worst loss since 2009 and I’m not sure there’s enough fight left in this team to give a crap about it. Dallas has a healthy O-line again that has allowed the Boys to get a rushing game going again and the defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any of its last three. Six of the last seven Cowboys games have gone UNDER. I like Dallas. 

MONDAY, DECEMBER 25

Steelers at Texans +10, 44 – The Steelers are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 as a double-digit road favorite and they’ll be without Antonio Brown. The Pittsburgh pass D has also seemingly fallen apart in recent games, allowing 375 yards against over its last three and 28.3 points against over its last four. Four of their last five have gone OVER as a result. The Steelers have also dropped four straight ATS so it’s tough for me to love them here. Then again, Houston has lost four straight and failed to cover three straight while its defense has allowed over 400 yards per game (worst in the NFL) over its last three. The Texans have also only scored more than 16 points once in their last seven. I’ll still take the home dog.  

Raiders at Eagles -9, 48.5 – The Raiders’ playoff hopes bit the dust last week and you have to wonder a little about the letdown factor here. Derek Carr fumbled away postseason hopes on an end-zone dive last week and I think we’re probably seeing about two points worth of letdown factor in this line. Philly’s defense is allowing one more yard per play (6.1) over its last three than on the season. I gotta wonder if their winning run isn’t catching up to them a little. Letdown factor or not, this feels like too many to me. Oakland. 

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