AFC Championship Odds: Pats Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens have lost 7 of their past 8 meetings with the New England Patriots but that lone victory was a huge one two years ago.
The Ravens came to town and stomped the Pats 33-14 in a Wild Card game as a 4-point underdog. This time, they visit Foxboro opening as a 7.5-point playoff underdog on the AFC championship game odds menu. [ Best Pats line? -7, -102 at 5Dimes earllier Sunday. ]
If you buy into Baltimore's road pattern in 2011-2012, you'll bet them to lose here. They have alternated wins and losses on the road all year and are due for a loss. As well, home teams are 8-2 SU in the past five seasons on Conference Championship weekend.
New England meanwhile has won eight straight as a favorite and the OVER has prevailed 7 in a row when they are chalk. But can they stomp the Raven defense like they did the Broncos last week? [ Latest spread and $100 in free wagers and $1000 in the poker room when you visit Bovada today ]
Totals bettors have an OVER-heavy trend to ponder as they prepare to make their wagers. The OVER is 10-2 in the last dozen conference title games going back six seasons.
The Patriots were listed as 6.5-point favorites at sportsbooks but it was already being bet up, with the total listed at 48 at shops such as TopBet.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
This game matches up the No. 11 (Patriots) and the No. 3 (Ravens) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 34-30 result in favor of the Patriots is predicted by handicapping models.
New England vs Baltimore Props, courtesy of Bovada:
Total Passing Yards – Joe Flacco (BALTIMORE)
Total TD Passes – Joe Flacco (BALTIMORE)
Over 1½ (-140)
Under 1½ (+110)
Total Interceptions – Joe Flacco (BALTIMORE)
Over ½ (-165)
Under ½ (+135)
Total Rushing Yards – Ray Rice (BALTIMORE)
Total Receiving Yards – Anquan Boldin (BALTIMORE)
Total Tackles & Assists – Ray Lewis (BALTIMORE)
Will Ed Reed (BALTIMORE) get an interception in the game?
Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NEW ENGLAND)
Total TD Passes – Tom Brady (NEW ENGLAND)
Over 2½ (-115)
Under 2½ (-115)
Total Interceptions – Tom Brady (NEW ENGLAND)
Over ½ (-165)
Under ½ (+135)
How many times will he be sacked - Tom Brady (NEW ENGLAND)
Over 2 (-130)
Under 2 (EVEN)
Total Receptions – Wes Welker (NEW ENGLAND)
Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski (NEW ENGLAND)
Will Rob Gronkowski (NEW ENGLAND) score a TD in the game?
Total Receiving Yards – Aaron Hernandez (NEW ENGLAND)
(BALTIMORE vs NEW ENGLAND) - Who will have the most New England Rushing Yards in the game?
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NEW ENGLAND) RB 4/5
Danny Woodhead (NEW ENGLAND) RB 7/4
Stevan Ridley (NEW ENGLAND) RB 7/2
Aaron Hernandez (NEW ENGLAND) TE 13/2
How They Match Up:
The game also pits New England's No. 3-ranked offense, averaging 32.1 PPG, against a Ravens defense that ranks No. 3 this week at 16.6 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 317.8 yards per game, more than the Ravens secondary allows through the air, 196.2 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Ravens feature the league's No. 7-rated road run defense, allowing 102 yards per game. New England, meanwhile, ranks No. 18 in rushing offense at home.
Baltimore was a 20-13 winner in its last match at home against the Texans. They failed to cover the 7.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 33 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window. The Ravens's last action saw them get a 2-TD performance from Joe Flacco as they handed Houston a 20-13 loss at M&T Bank Stadium.
New England won its last outing, a 45-10 result against the Broncos on January 14. The Patriots covered in that game as a 14-point favorite, while the 55 combined points took the game OVER the total. Tom Brady dusted the Broncos secondary for 6 TDs last time out as the Patriots defeated Denver 45-10 at Gillette Stadium.
Baltimore Ravens Trends:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 9-1
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 7-3
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few Ravens at Patriots trends to consider:
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore