49ers vs Packers Wild Card Preview
Colin Kaepernick out-dueled Aaron Rogers when the San Francisco 49ers beat the visiting Green Bay Packers, 34-28, in Week 1.
On Sunday, the two NFC traditional powers will meet again, this time at Lambeau Field in the opening round of the playoffs.
The Packers began the week as 2.5-point underdogs. It’s the first time in the modern era that the Packers have been home underdogs in the playoffs.
Rodgers returned after missing seven games to lead the Packers to a win over the Chicago Bears last week, giving the Packers the NFC North title and a home playoff game. But Green Bay is only 2-5 against the spread in its last seven playoff games at vaunted Lambeau Field.
Kaepernick and the 49ers beat the Arizona Cardinals on a last-second field goal to secure the fifth seed. They enter the playoffs riding a six-game winning streak.
San Francisco won at Green Bay last September, 30-22, but is just 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 visits to Lambeau. They opened as small road chalk on the NFC Wild Card betting line at Bovada.
Some NFC Wild Card betting trends of note between the Packers and Niners include these teams have played six straight OVERs since 2006; the 49ers are just 1-8 SU at Green Bay since 1996; the 49ers are 10-3-1 ATS past 14 road games; the 49ers are 8-1 SU and ATS past nine games as road chalk; the Packers are 1-7 ATS past eight games as underdogs; the Packers are 5-1 ATS as home dog with Rodgers as QB; the Packers are 5-2 ATS past seven playoff games; and the 49ers lost five of past six playoff road games SU.
The 49ers will look to vanquish their hosts on Sunday, as they are 10-5-1 ATS versus the spread this season, while the Packers are 7-8-1 ATS. San Francisco is 8-8 against the total, while Green Bay is 9-7 versus the number.
Bettors looking to back the visiting 49ers in this one found them as 2.5-point favorites earlier in the week, while the total was settling in the neighborhood of 47.5 at shops such as 5Dimes.
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Packers rated this week at No. 23 and the 49ers sitting at No. 5. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 30-21 result in favor of the 49ers this week.
The 49ers were a 23-20 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Cardinals. They covered the 3-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (43) made winners of OVER bettors. Colin Kaepernick's 310-yard performance through the air was enough last time out, as San Francisco earned a 23-20 win over Arizona on Sunday at University of Phoenix Stadium. Aaron Rodgers's 318-yard performance through the air was enough last time out, as Green Bay earned a 33-28 win over Chicago on Sunday at Soldier Field.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Green Bay's No. 8-ranked offense (26.06 PPG) against a 49ers defense that ranks No. 3 at 17 PPG. The Packers passing attack has averaged 266.75 yards per game, more than the 49ers give up through the air (221 YPG on average).
Defensively, the 49ers feature the league's No. 3-rated road run defense, allowing 84.75 yards per game. Green Bay, meanwhile, ranks No. 3 in rushing offense at home.
A few 49ers at Packers trends to consider:
San Francisco is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of San Francisco's last 23 games
San Francisco is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Green Bay is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco home to , Wednesday, December 31st
Green Bay home to , Wednesday, December 31st