Strategy for Betting Over Unders
Point spread betting is the most popular way to wager on NFL games, but handicapping totals can end up being much more profitable for those who know what they are doing.
Totals are also the simplest form of NFL betting as the sum of points in the game. So if two teams score more combined points than the listed total, the ‘over’ is a winner. Likewise, if the teams score fewer combined points than the total, the ‘under’ wins.
NFL Over/Under Lines
No matter how you crunch the numbers, there is a basic rule of thumb that should help all totals bettors, whether you are a sharp or a square. Public bettors love to wager on the ‘over’ because they love to see a lot of scoring, and that has a profound effect on line movement and betting behavior.
Most of the action comes in on the ‘over’ throughout the week leading up to a typical NFL game, making the total climb and usually leaving oddsmakers no choice but to adjust the line accordingly.
So if you like the ‘over’ then make sure to take it early in the week before the number rises. And if you are leaning towards the ‘under’, hold off on wagering on it until close to kickoff, when the total is at its highest.
The key to betting totals is to keep an eye on them daily and watch for line moves – caused by sharp bettors or other factors – which can happen at any time. Also, do not get caught waiting for a high number because it may never materialize, and you may miss out on getting the best line.
Other Factors Impact Totals
Much like the point spread can change dramatically if a key player is out with an injury, other factors can change totals just the same. Always make sure to evaluate weather conditions, offensive and defensive rankings, and home/away and grass/turf splits before making a call on the total.
In addition, routinely take a look at trends and the reasons behind why a particular team is cashing the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ with regularity.
Like with any form of NFL betting, winning at totals is a marathon, not a sprint. It takes training to avoid the pitfalls that can damage your bankroll and patience to know when it is the right time to jump on a number and when you should wait and save your money for another good wagering opportunity that could come your way.