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Super Bowl Facts, Odds, Predictions

There are a million Super Bowl stories and a million stats, quotes and ‘interesting’ facts about the Super Bowl, most of which are not very interesting.

Here at OddsShark.com, we sift through all the meaningless banter and stats and comments and distill it all down to a few must-read stats and facts. You are welcome.

Point Spread and total

The line opened at -5 for San Francisco, but was steadily bet down to -3.5 in the first week. More money had been wagered on Baltimore in the first week, with a roughly 55-45 percent split at most online sportsbooks (check Bovada for the latest lines and props).

OddsShark.com’s Prediction Computer says ...

The computer was hot and cold this season (more chilly and luke-warm most of the time), but it has crunched the numbers and come up with a 30-25 win for the 49ers. If correct, the 49ers would cover the spread and the game would go OVER the total.

OddsShark.com’s handicapping staff say ...

Our resident experts Mike Pickett and Jack Randall both believe that this will be a blowout and that Baltimore’s charmed ride through the playoffs will be exposed by an athletic quarterback and his varied offensive attack.

They believe 35-21, with Raven points coming in garbage time, is a likely result.

National anthem will go UNDER?

The national anthem as sung by Alicia Keys will be a full 40 seconds longer than the one sang last year by Kelly Clarkson, according to Bovada’s sportsbook manager. Their over-under on the anthem was 1:34 last year (Clarkson took precisely 1:34 to complete it) and it was 1:55 two years ago when Christina Aguilera’s rendition took 1:54.

“I guess that makes us the unofficial best anthem handicappers around,” he told OddsShark.com this week. The line opened at 2:15 but was bet down three seconds by UNDER bettors by Monday, according to Bradley.

Even Marvin Gaye’s epic performance at the 1983 NBA All-Star game was only 2:35 or so. Can Keys really push that? We don’t think so.

Coin Toss will be tails

Four times in the 46-year history of the Super Bowl, there have been four-game win streaks for heads or tails. The past four Super Bowl coin tosses have been heads, so history tells us that tails must come up this time.

49ers will win coin toss

This is supposedly a 50-50 toss-up but how come the NFC is 14-1 in the past 15 Super Bowls? New England’s win last year broke a 14-game coin toss win streak for NFC teams.

Lewis as Super Bowl MVP

No defensive player has ever won the award twice. In fact, only seven have ever won it (including Super Bowl XII where Harvey Martin and Randy White shared the award for Dallas). Lewis, who is retiring and a sentimental choice if he plays well and Baltimore wins, was the third betting choice at 6/1. History, the odds and a powerful backfield including Frank Gore are stacked against Lewis this week.

God an underdog again

This is the third straight year that oddsmakers have made the Almighty an underdog on the Super Bowl props menu. On the prop, who will the Super Bowl MVP thank in his acceptance interview, the top betting choice at Bovada is his teammates at 5/4.

God is the second choice (assuming soulful Ray Lewis does not win in which case the odds would change) at 5/2. Coaches and family are longshots at 12/1. Maybe they are simply dyslexic and see God as Dog....

Betting Trends

NFC is 5-0 ATS past five years

Underdogs are 8-3 ATS past 11 years

No picks for Joe Flacco means pick Ravens win and pick him for MVP?

Flacco takes a lot of flack, but his playoff numbers rank among the best of all time. If he throws three TDs without an interception at Super Bowl XLVII, he would match Joe Montana’s record 11-0 playoffs in 1989.

In fact, only five other quarterbacks have ever thrown for at least eight TDs without an INT in the playoffs. In every case, the team won the Super Bowl and the QB was Super Bowl MVP. Something to think about for Ravens bettors at +4 and Flacco MVP bettors.

1989 Joe Montana 11-0

1994 Steve Young 9-0

2012 Joe Flacco *8-0

2009 Drew Brees 8-0

1992 Troy Aikman 8-0

1986 Phil Simms 8-0

Unemployment rate predicts winners?

In 20 of the past 25 Super Bowls, the city boasting the lower jobless rate has won 20 times. That’s an 80% accuracy rate, far better than any handicapper can boast. If true, the Ravens will win here as their unemployment rate as of November was 7.2%. In San Francisco, the rate was 8.2%, according to this site.

The camel from New Jersey says....

Princess the Camel, who is allegedly 6-1 picking Super Bowl winners, likes the Ravens. Actually, she liked the graham cracker from whichever hand had the word ‘Baltimore’ hiding under the treat.

But if you talk to some people in the sports betting industry who have seen the lousy results of terrible handicappers, a lucky, hungry camel at 6-1 is better than an expensive, ‘expert’ handicapper at 1-6.

Bet on how much is bet

Sounds weird to be making a bet on how much money will be bet on the Super Bowl, but BetOnline has set the over-under on Las Vegas wagers at $90.5 million. Last year, $93.89 was wagered in Nevada, with the books turning a $5-million profit overall. That game involved two very public, big-market teams in the Giants and Patriots.

President Obama favored to pick Ravens      

If you can bet on how much will be bet, you might as well be able to bet on which team someone else will bet on. Confused yet?

Baltimore is right next door to Washington, DC and the 49ers always beat up on Barack Obama’s hometown Chicago Bears. It’s hard to imagine the president picking San Francisco, so oddsmakers at Bovada made it a -200 prop bet that he will pick the Ravens to win.
Baltimore Ravens -200     (1/2)
San Francisco 49ers +150     (3/2)

Gatorade odds – a clear betting choice          

In years past, yellow Gatorade was the top choice on this Super Bowl prop, which asks what color of drink/liquid will get dumped on the coach’s head by the winning team.

But it was clear/water last year at 2/1 and it’s the clear betting choice for Super Bowl XLVII. (odds from Bovada)

Clear/Water 7/4         
Orange 5/2         
Yellow 5/2         
Green 13/2      
Red 13/2      
Blue 13/2