Super Bowl Weather Report Affects Odds
Super Bowl bettors have some interesting trends to consider before attacking an over/under total that’s been on the move.
For the first time, they also have a weather forecast to consider, not just in terms of the point spread and total, but some of the Super Bowl props as well.
The Super Bowl total was sitting at 47 at some sportsbooks on Wednesday, but other shops were offering 47.5. Earlier in the week, it had dipped down to 46.5.
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An improving weather forecast certainly has helped the push on the OVER. Temperatures in East Rutherford, N.J. on Sunday are expected to climb into the 40s with a low of 29.
“We have the total at 47 and we have 70 percent of the action on the UNDER,” said Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada.lv. “This close to game, I am surprised we are not seeing more over money and I expect this to change with the weather looking better now.”
While the current forecast points toward a higher-scoring Super Bowl, recent trends for both the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks indicate the opposite.
The Broncos opened the season by playing in eight straight games that went OVER the total. Heading into the Super Bowl, however, seven of the Broncos’ last 10 games have stayed UNDER the total.
The Seattle Seahawks' last seven games have stayed UNDER the total. On the season, the Seahawks are 6-12 over/under.
Weather affects props
If the weather were forecast for brutal cold or snow, the theory followed that some prop lines would be adjusted as well. For example, the national anthem. If the weather was terribly cold, would singer Renee Fleming stretch out for the full note or would she cut a few notes short to prevent her voice from cracking in the cold (and to get back inside her warm dressing room)?
In that case, you might have seen the anthem over-under of 2:25 shrink a few seconds.
The ‘will it snow’ and ‘game time over-under temperature’ props at Bovada have gyrated a bit as the forecast has changed. Weather also had a chance to impact the prop concerning whether any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers would be shirtless during their halftime show appearance. The no remained at -140 at Bovada late in the week.
As for the result of the Super Bowl, the OddsShark Computer has spoken and the point spread will come into play.
In a bookmaker’s dream scenario, the Broncos will win the Super Bowl, but fail to cover the spread. The underdog covering but not winning is always the best result for the books in big games, because the public loves to bet the underdog to win the straight-up, but also normally backs the favorites on the spread.
The OddsShark Computer likes Denver to win somewhere in the range of 35-34, in what certainly would be an epic Super Bowl.