Even during their off week, the New England Patriots were somehow the biggest story in football. They’ll be looking to put the off-field shenanigans behind them when they host the Titans, who are coming off a shocking win in Kansas City. The Patriots are, by far, the biggest favorite of the week and their recent history in home playoff games makes them a hard team to bet against.
- The Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Titans are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a win.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last 10 games at home.
The Patriots are on a serious run in home playoff games. They’ve won six in a row where they’ve covered the spread five times, winning the games by an average of 17.8 points. Lopsided wins at home are nothing new for the Patriots. They won their three most recent home games by a combined 59 points, with each win coming by at least 18 points.
While Tom Brady and the offense get most of the credit, the defense has quietly been one of the league’s best. In their last five home games, they’ve allowed just 11.8 points per game, which paved the way to covering the spread in each of those games. This all matches up with a Titans offense that’s averaging just 18 points per game on the road. Marcus Mariota did enough to win last week, but he’s been brutal on the road this season, throwing 12 picks and just seven touchdown passes.
It shouldn’t come as much of a shock to hear this matchup has been incredibly one-sided with the Patriots winning the last six games between the teams with an average win margin of 20.8. Another trend for Patriots backers to sink their teeth into is that the Titans are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a double-digit dog.
The game also features the largest total of the week, currently hovering in the 47-point range. If New England’s defense continues its stingy ways at home, the offense likely needs to do the majority of the work for the total to go OVER. The Patriots are averaging the second-most points per game at home this season (29.4), while they’ve averaged 36.6 points per game during their six-game home playoff win streak.
You’re probably thinking this preview comes off as extremely one-sided, which is 100 percent accurate. The majority of the stats and trends I uncovered all point toward the Patriots, but to be fair, everything also pointed away from the Titans in the wild-card round, and we saw how that turned out.
Sportsbook Odds & Computer Pick
Betting fans looking to side with the New England Patriots in this one found them as 13.5-point favorites earlier in the week at Sportsbook, while the total was sitting at 48.
OddsShark computer NFL score prediction models picked a possible 33-10 win for the Patriots on Saturday. That score may change during the week if injury or weather factors alter the numbers, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.
Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots Matchup
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
The New England Patriots sport a record of 13-3 and 11-5 ATS heading into this betting matchup, while the Tennessee Titans sit at 10-7 and 9-7-1 ATS on the season. The OVER/UNDER totals records are 7-9 for the Patriots and 9-8 for the Titans. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Tennessee injuries news.
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Patriots rated this week at No. 1 and the Titans sitting at No. 17.
Statistical Matchup
The game also pits New England's No. 2-ranked offense, averaging 28.62 PPG, against a Titans defense that ranks No. 18 this week at 22.18 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 276.06 yards per game, more than the Titans secondary allows through the air, 240.24 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Titans feature the league's No. 3-rated road run defense, allowing 94.22 yards per game. The Patriots, meanwhile, rank No. 9 in rushing offense at home.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
Kansas City was unable to contain Derrick Henry in its last action Saturday and the result was a 22-21 wild-card playoff loss against the Titans.
New York didn't make much of a game of it last time out, losing to the Patriots as New England blasted them 26-6 in Week 17 action.
- Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
- Tennessee is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games
- Tennessee is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
- New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
- New England is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
- New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
