Three NFL Super Bowl Props to Consider
Super Bowl week is approaching, and sportsbooks are spitting out a gluttony of team and player propositions. We’ve highlighted three Super Bowl player prop bets below that you could consider when placing your wagers on the Big Game.
Total Passing Attempts, Russell Wilson (SEA) - Over/Under 26.5 (-115 o/u)
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has really pulled in the reins on his second-year quarterback during the playoffs. Wilson attempted just 18 passes in their win over the New Orleans Saints. He threw it 25 times to beat the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Overall, Wilson has averaged 25 attempts per game this season.
It’s no secret that Seattle doesn’t want to get into a shootout with the more-explosive Broncos. Controlling the ball on the ground with Marshawn Lynch seems like a more prudent strategy, especially if weather does play a factor. Lynch’s over/under on number of rushing yards is 87.5; for number of carries it's 21.5.
Now, if you see the Broncos jumping out to a lead, then obviously the Seahawks will be forced to throw the ball more frequently than they’d like. When they do throw, it’s often from outside of the pocket, where Wilson has a tendency to pull the ball down and take off rather than force a throw. This could add value to the OVER on his rushing attempts, which is set at 6.5 (-130u).
Total Receptions, TE Julius Thomas (DEN) - Over/Under 5 (-130u)
Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” secondary features a bevy of big, physical defensive backs, who have had a habit of shutting down some of the tight ends that they face. San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis was held to two catches for 16 yards in the NFC Championship Game. Saints TE Jimmy Graham only caught one pass for eight yards in a loss at Seattle.
Thomas has averaged 4.38 receptions per game this season. In the Broncos’ three losses, Thomas was held to an average of three catches.
Who will have more rushing attempts, Marshawn Lynch or Knowshon Moreno?
Bovada has Lynch -5.5 carries over Moreno. That may be too many, especially if you believe that Denver can grab an early lead, much like San Francisco did against the Seahawks. Seattle leads the NFL with 29 interceptions. Manning knows this and will want to be careful with the football. He’ll feed Moreno often to try to protect the ball from the opportunistic Seattle defense. On the other side, Carroll has been mixing in running back Robert Turbin more and more, as a change-of-pace back for Lynch. Turbin, by the way, is 40/1 to score the game’s first touchdown.