It’s a week when smart and lucky bettors get off to a huge start and unwise and unlucky ones can suffer an 0-4 Sportsbook weekend.
The first week of NFL offers terrific profit opportunity, but it is also fraught with handicapping pitfalls, even moreso in 2011 with the compressed free agency and training camps.
As a rule of thumb, you are looking for value in Week 1 NFL betting. An underachieving team from last year that did well in the preseason may be indicative of a team ready to win impressively. Do the Detroit Lions fall into that category? [ See 2011 NFL preseasons standings ]
ADVERTISEMENT: Time is running out on the industry’s biggest sportsbook bonus of 2011 – double your deposit up to $250 FREE – visit Sportsbook for the details.
The Lions were 6-10 last season (12-4 ATS), but were aggressive this summer and rolled to a tidy 4-0 preseason mark, outscoring foes 114-47 in the process. They opened as 3-point underdogs in Tampa Bay but bettors at Sportsbook pushed the line even.
Detroit has owned the Buccaneers, going 7-1 ATS in the past 8 meetings and they seem primed to start the season well.
Another value team in Week 1 is Atlanta. Not because they underachieved in 2010 – if anything they overachieved at 13-3 – but because an 0-4 preseason will weigh on bettors’ minds. They are small favorites in Chicago, but this is an explosive team that can easily defeat the Bears.
One trend working in their favor is the 10-2 ATS in their past 12 season openers. Another is the 9-3 ATS angle the past 12 times they have been favored.
Looking for a couple of impressive preseason teams to fade in Week 1? Try the Washington Redskins. They were 3-1 in the preseason and host the Giants as 3-point underdogs. The Skins have been dominated at home by the Giants, losing five in a row and clearly more than three points better than Washington.
We expect the Giants vs Redskins line to move higher in favor of the Giants.
Also check out the Rams, a 4-0 preseason team who have a very tough home test in Week 1, hosting the Super Bowl-contender Eagles. The spread has been bet up to -5.5 if you like the Rams, while most online sportsbooks have them at +4.5.
But this is a trap situation in St. Louis, who are not a 4-0 team. The Eagles are 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 meetings with the Rams and St. Louis has been a money pit in season openers, going 1-8-1 ATS past 10 years.
Check out some Week 1 NFL trends:
Falcons
10-2 ATS past 12 season openers
9-3 ATS past 12 games as a favourite
1-7 SU past 8 September road games
UNDER is 11-2 past 13 Sept road games
Ravens
6-2 ATS past 8 Week 1 games at home
1-5-1 ATS past 7 vs Steelers
Won 8 in a row SU at home in September
Bills
6-1 ATS past 7 season openers
Panthers
UNDER is 10-2-1 past 13 Week 1 games
5-1 ATS past 6 seasons openers on the road
Bears
UNDER is 15-4 past 19 games as underdog
Played 6 straight Week 1 UNDERs
Bengals
1-11 ATS past 12 games as underdog
Browns
1-9-1 ATS past 11 season Sportsbook games
UNDER is 8-2-1 past 11 Week 1 games
Broncos
7-3 ATS past 10 season openers
UNDER is 6-2 past 8 Week 1 matches
Lions
7-1 ATS past 8 vs Tampa Bay
Texans
OVER is 10-2 past 12 meetings vs Colts
Colts
10-3-1 ATS past 14 September road games
5-1-1 ATS past 7 season openers on the road
Jaguars
1-6 ATS past 7 September home games
9-2 ATS past 11 Week 1 games
6-1 ATS past 7 Week 1 games when at home
UNDER is 5-1 past 6 meetings with Titans
Chiefs
2-7 ATS past 9 vs Bills
UNDER is 8-1 past 9 vs Bills
Dolphins
0-7 ATS past 7 September home games
1-5-1 ATS past 7 Week 1 games
Patriots
OVER is 7-1 past 8 Week 1 games when on road
Giants
5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS past 5 trips to Washington
Jets
Lost 8 in a row SU vs NFC East teams dating to 2003
Raiders
8-2 ATS past 10 games vs Broncos
Eagles
8-1-1 ATS past 10 games vs Rams
Seahawks
1-7 ATS past 8 September road games
Rams
1-8-1 ATS past 10 season openers
Titans
11-3 ATS past 14 September games
9-3 ATS past 12 September road games
6-2 ATS past 8 season openers
UNDER is 5-1 past 6 season openers
