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Week 1 NFL Odds & Betting Notes

The NFL schedule was released last night and it wasn’t long before the Westgate’s Las Vegas Superbook followed up with odds for the Week 1 matchups. 

Here’s a look at the opening lines and a betting note for each game to help you get your NFL handicapping started:  

(Update: Patriots QB Tom Brady will be suspended  

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2016

  • PANTHERS        43.5
  • BRONCOS        -3 EV

Two huge trends here: Defending Super Bowl champs are 13-3 SU (straight up), and 10-5-1 ATS (against the spread) since 2000 in Week 1. The team that lost in the Super Bowl the year before is 6-10 SU and a horrifying 3-13 ATS in Week 1.  
 
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2016

  • BUCCANEERS  48
  • FALCONS          -3.5

Falcons were the biggest UNDER team in the NFL last year with an O/U of 2-13-1. Inflated totals for a team that ranked seventh in points per game and in points against.  

  • VIKINGS          -3
  • TITANS          42.5

Titans have the second longest odds to win the Super Bowl which range from about 150-1 to 220-1. Vikings were the best bet in the NFL last season at a pretty incredible 13-3 ATS. 

  • BROWNS          46
  • EAGLES          -7.5

Browns are the biggest longshot to win the Super Bowl this year at 150-1 to 225-1. More drama at the QB position with the acquisition of RGIII.

  • BENGALS     PK
  • JETS            43.5

Huge strides for the Jets last year. Were especially good at home with a 6-2 SU record and 5-3 ATS. 

  • RAIDERS        51
  • SAINTS          -1.5

Saints could be motivated to win first game in honor of former DE Will Smith, who died tragically on April 10. They need to find a way to shore up the defense this season after an NFL worst 29.8 points against per game in 2015.  

  • CHARGERS    43.5
  • CHIEFS            -7.5

Chiefs ranked third in the NFL with 17.9 points against per game last season. Kansas City was the sixth-best team in rushing in the NFL last season; Chargers were sixth-worst. 

  • BILLS            43.5
  • RAVENS      -3 EV

Bills were the best rushing offense in the NFL last season. It was a rough betting year for the Ravens at 5-9-1 ATS. 

  • BEARS           45.5
  • TEXANS         -4.5

Bears were much better away from the scrutiny at home (5-3 SU on the road) and against the AFC last season (3-1 vs. 3-9 against NFC). High hopes as always for the Bears this year. Won’t be surprised to see this line move down as Week 1 draws nearer. 

  • PACKERS         -3.5
  • JAGUARS          48

Hard to believe Green Bay ranked 25th in passing yards last season. Helped the UNDER go 11-5 in their games. 

  • DOLPHINS        45.5
  • SEAHAWKS      -7.5

Seahawks are co-faves to win the NFC. Led the league in points against per game and ranked second in yards allowed per game last season. 

  • GIANTS          49.5
  • COWBOYS     -5.5

Giants were the worst defense in total yards per game last season and were the sixth-best offense in points per game. Made for an OVER bettor’s dream as the biggest OVER team in the NFL with an O/U of 11-5.

  • LIONS           49.5
  • COLTS          -5.5

Colts went 2-6 ATS last year as a favorite and closed the season by dropping four straight spreads, all as faves. Sign of expectations this year as they approach being TD faves to open the season against the Lions.  

  • PATRIOTS           51
  • CARDINALS       PK

*Update (April 25): New England QB Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the NFL season. 

The Cardinals had the eighth best pass defense in the NFL last season and the No. 2 passing offense. Should make for a good matchup against the pass-heavy Pats in one of the only two pick ‘em games on the board in Week 1.  
 
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2016

  • STEELERS        -2.5
  • REDSKINS          51 

Steelers had fourth-best scoring offense in the NFL last year but fourth-worst passing defense. Led to a 6-10 O/U mark, though. This game and Raiders-Saints opened with highest totals for Week 1. 

  • RAMS            -2.5
  • 49ERS             47

Rams had the worst offense in the NFL in terms of yards per game last season and scored fewer than 18 points per game, yet are one of three road faves in Week 1. O/U was 4-12 in Rams games last season.   

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