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Week 4 NFL Betting Primer

Atlanta Falcons NFL

Week 4 is upon us and so far this season, underdogs have come out on top each week and have a 26-19-3 record vs favorites through the first three weeks of the season. The dogs are hitting at roughly 54% which is up from last year's mark of 51.5%.

With that said, if you find yourself on the fence with any of your wagers this week, you might be inclined to side with the favorite if you expect that 54% number to come down.

So, let's get after it this week. I dug deep so you don't have to. Use the numbers below to get an edge on your sportsbook, and check out the fantasy nuggets to destroy the chumps in your fantasy league. I apologize in advance to all the chumps out there.

Dolphins at Bengals
  • Miami is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, losing five of those games by a touchdown or more.
  • The Bengals are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when hosting a team with a losing record.
  • The Bengals are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after consecutive losses.
  • The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records.
  • The Dolphins are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • The Dolphins are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against the Bengals, but these teams haven't played since 2013.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Dolphins' last eight games on Thursday.
  • Both Ryan Tannehill and Andy Dalton have losing records and sub-80 QB ratings in night games.
  • The Dolphins have allowed the second-most rushing yards this season.
Colts at Jaguars
  • The Colts are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Jaguars. Five of those six wins were by 17 points or more.
  • The Jags are 1-17 SU in their last 18 games away from Jacksonville (6-10-2 ATS).
  • Jacksonville has just 165 rushing yards this season, the second-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Colts are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games against their division.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Colts' last 10 games against the Jaguars.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Colts' last 14 games as favorite.
  • Both teams have allowed nine sacks this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* In his last two games vs JAC (in 2014), Andrew Luck had 623 passing yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs.
Bills at Patriots
  • The Bills are 3-27 SU in their last 30 games against the Patriots, with 21 of those losses by a TD or more.
  • Since 1995, the Patriots are 18-3 SU in home games vs the Bills.
  • The Patriots are 9-0 SU in their last nine games in October.
  • The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home.
  • The Bills are 8-25 SU in their last 33 games after a win.
  • The Bills are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games after winning as an underdog.
  • The Bills haven’t won in consecutive weeks as an underdog since 2009.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* In the last four games that LeGarrette Blount received 22 or more touches, he’s averaged 106.7 rush yards with at least 1 TD.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Tyrod Taylor has thrown 0 TD passes in four of his last five games.
Seahawks at Jets
  • The Seahawks are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road against the Jets.
  • The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Seahawks are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Seahawks last three regular season road wins have all come by 29 points or more.
  • Russell Wilson has an 8-9 career record in early afternoon games — this is the only time slot that he has a losing record in and a sub-100 QB rating.
  • Going back to last season, Ryan Fitzpatrick has 10 INTs in his last four games.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the second-fewest passing yards this season — 488, and are one of only two teams to not allow a TD pass this season.
Titans at Texans
  • The Titans are 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the AFC.
  • The Titans are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The Titans are 0-4 SU in their last four road games in Houston, losing by an average of 17 points.
  • The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Texans.
  • The Texans are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Texans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 4.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Texans' last six games at home.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Marcus Mariota has only thrown two INTs on the road in his career, compared to 12 at home. His QBR on the road is 104.9 vs 76.7 at home.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Lamar Miller has just one TD in his last six games.
Broncos at Buccaneers
  • The Bucs are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games at home against teams with winning records.
  • Tampa Bay is 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three home games, losing each game by a TD or less.
  • The Bucs are 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the AFC.
  • The Bucs are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home after a loss at home.
  • The Broncos are 7-2 SU in their last nine games on the road.
  • The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Emmanuel Sanders has averaged 89 receiving yards in his last eight road games. He had 109 or more yards and at least 1 TD in five of those games.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Mike Evans has scored a TD in each game this season, averaging 100 receiving yards per game.
  • *Fantasy Alert* CJ Anderson hasn’t scored a TD or rushed for more than 59 yards in nine straight road games. He has only one rushing TD on the road in his career.
Browns at Redskins
  • The Browns are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road. They’ve lost those games by an average of 15 points. Five of those losses were by 17 points or more.
  • The Redskins are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games after winning as an underdog.
  • The Redskins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as the favorite.
  • The Browns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 4.
  • Washington has allowed 7 rushing TDs this season — the most in the NFL
Cowboys at 49ers
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Cowboys' last seven games against the 49ers.
  • The 49ers are 15-5 SU and ATS in their last 20 games in October.
  • The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after consecutive losses.
  • The Cowboys are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games in Week 4.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Carlos Hyde has received 22 or more touches five times in his career, including twice this season. He has seven TDs in those games (four this season). 
Lions at Bears
  • The Bears are 1-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 12 home games. This includes two losses to the Lions, by 4 and 6 points.
  • The Lions are 6-0 SU in their last six games against the Bears, winning by an average of 6.6 points.
  • The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against their division.
  • The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at home after consecutive losses at home.
  • The Lions are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* The Lions are tied for the most TD passes allowed this season — 10. Alshon Jeffery has TDs in three consecutive games vs the Lions.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Matthew Stafford threw for 7 TDs and 703 yards in two games vs the Bears last season.
Panthers at Falcons
  • Three of the last four games between these teams have been decided by three points or less.
  • The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Falcons.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Panthers' last six games against the Falcons.
  • The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The Panthers are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.
  • The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
  • Cam Newton had a 107.2 QB rating in two games vs ATL last season.
  • The Falcons are tied for the most TD passes allowed this season — 10.
Raiders at Ravens
  • The Ravens’ three wins this season have come against teams who are a combined 1-8 SU.
  • The Raiders are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against the Ravens.
  • The Ravens are 18-6 SU in their last 24 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Ravens are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Raiders are 2-15 SU in their last 17 games after a win.
  • The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as underdog.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Amari Cooper has just two TDs in his last 11 games and they both came in the same game. 
  • Joe Flacco has a 14-15 record in October. This is the only month in which he has a losing record.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Joe Flacco has thrown three TD passes in a game just once in his last 23 games.
  • It’s been over a year since Baltimore has won a home game by a TD or more.
Rams at Cardinals
  • These teams have split their last six matchups in Arizona, both SU and ATS, with four of the games being decided by double digits.
  • The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals are 6-0 SU in their last six games after losing as a favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Cardinals' last six games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Rams' last 15 games.
  • The Rams are 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight games after consecutive wins.
  • The Rams have scored less than 20 points in 14 of their last 20 road games, and 15 of the games went UNDER.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Todd Gurley has rushed for over 100 yards just once in his last 11 games.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Larry Fitzgerald has scored at least one TD in five consecutive home games.
Saints at Chargers
  • The Chargers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
  • The Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
  • The Saints are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Saints' last four games against the Chargers.
  • The Chargers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.
  • The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in October.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Saints' last four games on the road.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Load up on Saints receivers and pay the price for Melvin Gordon in DFS because…
  • The Saints have the most passing yards in the NFL — the Chargers have allowed the third-most.
  • The Saints have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL this season.
Chiefs at Steelers
  • Of Pittsburgh’s last eight wins at home, seven of them have come by eight points or more. 
  • The Steelers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games after a loss.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Steelers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Steelers' last seven games. The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chiefs' last seven games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road after consecutive losses on the road.
  • Alex Smith hasn’t thrown an INT in eight consecutive regular season road games.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Ben Roethlisberger has thrown at least 3 TDs in four consecutive home games, averaging 345 passing yards in those games.
Giants at Vikings
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Vikings' last 11 games against teams with winning records.
  • The Vikings are 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games on a Monday.
  • The Giants are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games in Week 4.
  • Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t scored a TD in three consecutive games — a tie for the longest he’s ever gone in a season without a TD.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* The Vikings lead the NFL with 15 sacks. They’ve allowed just three TD passes this season from Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers and Marcus Mariota.
  • *FANTASY ALERT* Eli Manning has thrown five TDs and 14 INTs in his career vs the Vikings.

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