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Week 5 NFL Betting Primer

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Underdogs continue to have the edge over favorites coming into Week 5 while the UNDER has only cashed in 41% of games so far this season. Outright wins by underdogs are also on the rise this season compared to last. Last year saw an average of 5.65 straight-up wins by underdogs per week, but this year it's up to 6.75, so be sure to give some extra consideration to dogs for straight-up bets to increase your value.

With Week 5 upon us, here's some trends, stats, facts and gold nuggets to help you with your wagers. Get after it this weekend and remember to play the books, don't let the books play you!

Cardinals at 49ers
  • The Cardinals are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road against the 49ers.
  • The 49ers are 15-6 SU and ATS in their last 21 games in October.
  • The 49ers are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games at home after a loss at home.
  • The Cardinals are 5-1 SU in their last six games after consecutive losses.
  • The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • Drew Stanton has a career record of 7-6 in road games, with just three TD passes and nine INTs.
  • The 49ers have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL — 562.
  • *Fantasy Alert* David Johnson has scored a touchdown in five consecutive road games, including six in his last three.
Patriots at Browns
  • New England has been a double-digit road favorite 10 times since 2000 and went 4-5-1 ATS.
  • Since 2000, double-digit road favorites in the NFL are 32-49 ATS.
  • Last season, Brady led the way to six blowouts of 17 points or more, with two of those taking place on the road.
  • Over the last three seasons, the Browns have eight home losses of 13 points or more.
  • The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Browns.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Patriots' last four games against the Browns.
  • The Browns are 0-9 SU in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as underdog.
  • The Patriots are 42-8 SU in their last 50 games after a loss.
Jets at Steelers
  • Six of Pittsburgh’s last eight wins at home were by eight points or more.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Jets' last 15 games against the Steelers.
  • The Jets are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Steelers.
  • The Steelers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games in Week 5.
  • The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Ben Roethlisberger has recorded at least three TD passes in five straight home games. 
Bears at Colts
  • The Bears have been outscored by double digits in three of their last four road games.
  • The Bears are 6-2 SU in their last eight games against the Colts.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Colts' last 15 games as favorite.
  • The Colts are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games after losing as a favorite.
  • The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road after consecutive losses on the road.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Andrew Luck has thrown for an average of 358 yards in two home games this season.
Bengals at Cowboys
  • The Bengals haven’t allowed a rushing TD yet this season.
  • The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 5.
  • The Cowboys are 1-8 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The Bengals are 0-4 SU in their last four games after a win.
  • The Bengals are 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for a TD in three of four games this season and has two straight games of 100+ rushing yards.
Bills at Rams
  • The last time the Bills won three consecutive games as an underdog was in 2007.
  • The Bills are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games against the Rams.
  • The Rams are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games after a win.
  • The Bills are 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after consecutive wins.
  • The Bills are 3-15-2 ATS in their last 20 games after winning as an underdog.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Todd Gurley has rushed for 100+ yards just once in his last 12 games.
Chargers at Raiders
  • Philip Rivers is 14-6 in his career vs the Raiders with 31 TDs and 15 INTs.
  • The Chargers are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games on the road against the Raiders.
  • The Chargers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on the road against the Raiders.
  • The Raiders are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after winning as an underdog.
  • The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Chargers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games against their division.
  • Oakland has allowed the second-most rushing yards this season — 538.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Latavius Murray has rushed for a TD in three of four games this season and scored a TD in both games vs the Chargers last season. San Diego has allowed the second-most rushing TDs this season.
Eagles at Lions
  • Going back to last season, the Eagles have won four of their last five road games SU and ATS, winning each game by six points or more.
  • The Lions haven’t allowed a rushing TD yet this season.
  • The Eagles are the only team in the NFL to not allow a receiving TD this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Eagles' last five games against the Lions.
  • The Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
  • The Lions are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home after a loss at home.
  • The Eagles are 2-6 SU in their last eight games after consecutive wins.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Matthew Stafford had his best game of the season last year at home to the Eagles, throwing for 5 TDs and 337 yards.
Titans at Dolphins
  • The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs teams with losing records.
  • Eight of the last nine games in Miami have been decided by six points or more.
  • The Titans are 2-6 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Titans' last 11 games on the road against the Dolphins.
  • The Dolphins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Dolphins' last nine games with a closing total of 43.5 or less.
  • The Titans are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Titans are 0-14 SU in their last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5 or less.
Falcons at Broncos
  • Dating back to 2010, the Falcons are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road vs West division teams.
  • Matt Ryan has an 8-1 career record vs AFC West teams. His 107.4 QB rating vs the AFC West is his highest vs any division.
  • The Broncos have allowed just 678 passing yards this season — third-lowest in the NFL.
  • The Falcons are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Broncos.
  • The Broncos are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games after winning as an underdog.
Redskins at Ravens
  • The Redskins are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Redskins' last five games against the Ravens.
  • The Ravens are 34-14 SU in their last 48 games after a loss.
  • The Ravens are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Redskins' last eight games in Week 5.
  • The Redskins are 1-5 SU in their last six games against teams with winning records.
  • The Redskins are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games as underdog.
Texans at Vikings
  • The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
  • The Texans are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The Texans are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Vikings.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Vikings' last 14 games in Week 5.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Texans' last six games.
  • The Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road after an ATS loss on the road.
  • The Texans are 1-7 SU in their last eight games in Week 5.
Giants at Packers
  • The Packers are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October home games. Eight of those wins were by nine points or more.
  • The Giants are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five October road games. Each loss was by 10 points or more.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Packers' last seven games at home.
  • Green Bay has allowed just 42.7 rush yards per game this season — by far the best in the NFL.
  • The Packers are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games at home after a win at home.
  • The Giants are the only team in the NFL without an interception this season.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Aaron Rodgers has a 110.3 QB rating in October games — his highest of any month (68 TDs, 17 INTs). In his career vs the Giants, he has nine TDs and two INTs.
Buccaneers at Panthers
  • The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on Monday.
  • The Buccaneers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Panthers.
  • The Panthers are 14-0 SU in their last 14 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Jameis Winston combined for just two TDs and six INTs vs the Panthers last season.
  • *Fantasy Alert* Cam Newton threw four TDs, 0 INTs and rushed for two TDs vs the Bucs last season.

 

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