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Why the Patriots Will Win the Super Bowl

The New England Patriots enter the Super Bowl this Sunday as a 3-point favorite, the first time they’ve been favored by less than 7 points since Week 12.

 

With such a low spread to cover the Patriots could make a very profitable NFL betting option this Sunday.

Revenge is one of the biggest driving factors in professional sports, and you won’t find a much bigger revenge spot than this year’s Super Bowl. The Patriots had their perfect season in 2007 spoiled by the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, and with so many key players from that team still leading the Patriots (including Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Logan Mankins, and Vince Wilfork), it is hard to imagine New England isn’t champing at the bit for this chance at redemption.

 

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They went into the last Super Bowl against the Giants overconfident; this time, it may be the Giants that are overconfident in expecting history to repeat itself.

Have any doubt about the Patriots’ motivation? A loss to the Giants back in November seemed to have given New England a renewed focus to their season; since that loss, New England is a perfect 10-0 SU (6-3-1 ATS) and has averaged 35.9 points per game.

New York backers are quick to point out that the Giants have the much better defense, and that New England’s defense is terrible. But in the playoffs, recent form is all that matters; you can throw the regular season stats out the window.

 

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And not only have the Patriots done a great job in scoring defense (allowing 15 points per game in the playoffs), they’ve also done a great job containing the run.

New England gave up just 144 rushing yards to a Denver team that averaged over 186 per game with Tim Tebow under center, and gave up just 67 yards to Ray Rice on 21 carries. If New York struggles to establish its running game, New England can hone in on the pass and make enough plays to win this game.

And while you have to respect New York’s ability to get to the quarterback, the Patriots have plenty of quick-out options in Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski (who will play).

 

There will undoubtedly be plenty of big plays by both teams in this one, and it should be a great game; but look for the revenge factor to give New England that little extra boost to put them over the top.