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Home Teams Have Done Shockingly Well on 2nd Night of Back-to-Backs

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve been looking for some trends to emerge in the early going of this year’s NHL season. One that just surfaced is a weird one that goes against most conventional wisdom and hockey pundits everywhere.

The dreaded back-to-back. No one wants to play a game of hockey on consecutive nights and no one wants to bet on a team playing the second half of a back-to-back but what I’m here to tell you is that maybe you should.

Teams who have played the second half of their back-to-backs at home this year have won an astounding 19 times in the 23 instances where these factors have met up. Whenever I see a bet that’s cashing over 80 percent of the time, it makes me do a double take. If you’d bet every home team’s moneyline that was playing a second game in as many days this year, you’d be laughing all the way to the bank – depending on far away your bank is.

Topically enough, there just happens to be another one of these instances tonight when the Washington Capitals host Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. This game opened with the Caps favored but they’ve been bet down to a slight underdog at Bovada and, personally speaking, this line needs to be hammered.

Not only have these B2B teams been doing great on the moneyline, they’re also 12-11 against the spread. Now I know that’s just a tad over .500 but if you can find an alternative line that gives the Capitals a couple of goals tonight, it could reward you handsomely to the tune of +300 or better.

To add a little more oddity to this already contrary trend, let’s look at the OVER/UNDER record for games where the home team is playing the second half of a back-to-back, which is currently 15-5-3. If you’re shocked by that number, don’t worry, you’re not alone – it’s another weird one.

OVERs were cashing like crazy at the beginning of the year but that trend leveled off significantly. For OVERs to be cashing at 65 percent – you’re getting your money back in 13 percent of those games – is mind-blowing. If anyone had told me when I woke up this morning that they could give me a total bet that had just a 22 percent chance of losing, I would have called them a liar.

The numbers, however, can’t lie and they’re telling one thing – bet the OVER in the Penguins-Capitals game tonight.

Penguins vs Capitals betting lines
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Penguins-1.5 (+255)-1205 (-130) OVER
Capitals+1.5 (-310)EVEN5 (+110) UNDER

Odds as of November 16 at Bovada

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