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Penguins and Jets Have Been OVER Bettor's Dream

Since the all-star break, scoring in the NHL has skyrocketed from the 5.45 total goals per game number we saw before the new year to the total of 5.91 per game we’ve seen since the league's stars got together for some goofs and gaffes in Los Angeles. The higher scores we’re seeing in the NHL have led to OVER bettors benefiting at the betting window and if you’ve been picking your spots correctly, you probably have been too. Two teams who have contributed a lot to that trend are the Jets and Penguins, who have combined for a goals per game total of 6.14 since the all-star break. Coincidentally enough, these teams will face off tonight in Pittsburgh in a game that opened with a total of 6.

Such a high total can scare bettors off the scent of an OVER bet but according to the 9-6-1 OVER/UNDER record for all games that have had a total of 6 or more this season, you may want to be bullish in this spot.

These totals of 6 and 6.5 are starting to become commonplace on the NHL betting board with scoring way up and the Penguins, with their 34-16-4 O/U record, have been involved in almost half the games this season that have had one of those high totals. So, how have Sid the Kid and Hotdog Phil responded in those seven instances? They've gone 5-2 straight up with an O/U record of 4-3 – not too shabby.

Here’s a look at those specific games:

Penguins' totals of 6 or More in the 2016-17 Season
DateAwayHomeAway ScoreHome ScoreClosing TotalOU Result
February 4, 2017PenguinsBlues416U
February 3, 2017Blue JacketsPenguins346O
January 24, 2017BluesPenguins306U
January 20, 2017PenguinsHurricanes716.5O
January 8, 2017LightningPenguins266O
December 23, 2016DevilsPenguins146U
December 22, 2016PenguinsBlue Jackets176.5O

And what about the Jets? They’ve amazingly had just two games with a total of 6 or more – both in matchups with the Stars – and went 2-0 SU in those games with an O/U record of 2-0. The Jets are on a crazy run of OVERs right now, posting a 13-2-1 O/U record over the course of their last 16 games and their games have had an average total of 6.71 goals since the break.

Here’s Winnipeg’s table for games where the total was 6 or more:

Jets' totals of 6 or more in the 2016-17 Season
DateAwayHomeAway ScoreHome ScoreClosing TotalOU Result
February 14, 2017StarsJets256.5O
February 2, 2017JetsStars436O

With those past results in mind, let’s take a look at the matchup for this evening to see if this one has a chance to breach its total.

When I was analyzing this game, a couple of things jumped right off the page. 1. The Penguins, with 3.93 goals per game, are the highest-scoring team in the NHL when playing at home. 2. The Jets have given up an average of 3.23 goals per game in their 30 games on the road this year. Put those numbers together and you get a total of 7.15 goals, *chin scratching emoji*. I’m no scientist or mathematician or whatever but from the looks of it, 7.15 is a bigger number than 6.

I know it’s not that simple but why isn’t it? Pittsburgh scores a bunch at the horribly named PPG Paints Arena and Winnipeg gives up a bucket of goals when they travel. With Winnipeg’s goalies struggling mightily to keep the puck out of the net this month and the Pens coming off a five-goal outburst, this one seems like an easy bet.

To pile on a little bit, the Jets are the second-most penalized road team in the NHL and Pittsburgh this season has converted on 27.1 percent of its power plays at home – the second-best rate in the league.

That’s all I really need to know for this one but for the rest of you, who need further convincing, check out the Jets-Pens matchup here.

Here’s the betting lines from Bovada for tonight’s game:

Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Jets+1.5 (-130)+2156 (-125) OVER
Penguins-1.5 (+110)+2556 (+105) UNDER

Odds as of February 16 at Bovada

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