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Consider the OVER in Pens-Bolts Game 6

Pittsburgh Penguins Tampa Bay Lightning Stanley Cup Playoffs NHL

The Tampa Bay Lightning have a chance to finish the Eastern Conference final with a win on home ice in Game 6 Tuesday night. While the Bolts have certainly been a great home team during the postseason (6-2 SU), there has been no real home-ice advantage per se in this series, but there is one trend bettors should be taking note of when these two teams play.

Shark Bites
  • The Penguins are 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the Lightning.
  • The Lightning are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games as underdogs.
  • The Lightning are 5-1 SU in their last six games with one day off between games.

Online shop Bovada is presently offering the Lightning at +120 in moneyline markets while the Pens come in at -140. As far as the total is concerned, OVER 5.5 goals is priced at +120 while UNDER 5.5 goals is -140. In puckline markets, the Pens are +205 as -1.5 faves while the Bolts are -245 as puckline dogs.

OVER wagers have cashed in three-straight contests in the series with the OVER/UNDER record now sitting at 3-1-1 entering Game 6. As a matter of fact, this trend isn’t really anything new when it comes down to the Penguins and Lightning as 17 of the previous 20 meetings between these two have cashed for OVER bettors.

The debate has been raging over who should start in the crease for the Pens - Matt Murray or Marc-Andre Fleury – and, as of Tuesday afternoon, it looks like head coach Mike Sullivan is going back to Murray, who had performed admirably throughout the postseason until the change. Fleury got the start in Game 5 after replacing Murray in Game 4.

Still, it doesn’t seem to matter who is in the blue paint for the Pens as Nikita Kucherov is taking the postseason by storm. The 22-year-old leads the playoffs with 11 goals including a clutch game-tying goal with just over three minutes on the clock in Game 5, before Tyler Johnson, who is also coming up with timely goals, scored the winner.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The visiting Pittsburgh Penguins opened as 131 moneyline favorites in this one at most online sportsbooks tracked at Odds Shark, including BetOnline. The total opened at 5.5 for those preferring over under betting, watch for the line updates during the day at Bovada.

Odds Shark computer prediction formulas pick a 3.5-2.1 win for the Lightning on Tuesday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Pittsburgh Penguins will look to vanquish their hosts on Tuesday, as they are 58-30-10 this season, while the Lightning are 57-34-6. Pittsburgh is 44-36-18 against the total, while Tampa Bay is 40-44-13 versus the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh injuries news.

The Odds Shark NHL Power Rankings have the Tampa Bay Lightning at No. 21 and the Pittsburgh Penguins at No. 1 heading into this contest.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Tampa Bay Lightning No. 11-ranked offense (2.8 goals per game) against a Pittsburgh Penguins defense that ranks No. 6 at 2.48 goals per game allowed. The Lightning powerplay has clicked at a 16.01% rate while the Penguins have a 84.09% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

 

Betting Trends
  • Pittsburgh is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
  • Pittsburgh is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games on the road
  • Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
  • Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games when playing Pittsburgh

Next Betting Matchups

Pittsburgh home to Tampa Bay, Thursday, May 26th

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