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NFL Week 17 Expert Betting Odds Picks

A pair of underdogs and a total are my NFL Week 17 recommendations. The total is under 39.5 in the Washington-Dallas matchup.

The Redskins are locked into the fourth seed by virtue of winning the NFC East Division. So this game means very little to them. I expect Jay Gruden to rest his starters, including hot quarterback Kirk Cousins, much of the game.

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NFL Week 17 Betting Trends Analysis

This last week of the NFL regular season can be the toughest. Who really knows the mindset of the players on teams out of postseason contention? Perhaps some trends and angles can help.

Chip Kelly didn't make it through his third season with Philadelphia, fired five days before the Eagles play at the New York Giants. The Eagles have had the Giants' number winning and covering 12 of the past 15 times, including 27-7 in Week 6.

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ACC Battle: Wake Forest vs Louisville

Conference play in the Atlantic Coast Conference kicks off on Sunday for two teams that have exceeded preseason expectations in the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Louisville Cardinals.

Shark Bites
  • Wake Forest is 8-22 SU in its last 30 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in Wake Forest's last five games as underdogs.
  • Louisville is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home in January.

The Cardinals’ (11-2 SU) only two losses have come by a combined six points to superpowers Michigan State and Kentucky, while going a perfect 10-0 at the KFC Yum! Centre (yes, that’s the name). Wake Forest may be looking like tasty competition for the Cardinals, as Rick Pitino’s club has won its conference opener in six of the last seven seasons including an 85-76 victory over the Demon Deacons last year.

Despite its improved play this season, Wake Forest has not yet found any consistency at the betting window. The Demon Deacons are an ugly 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS win.

Game ID: 
714880
League: 

UNDER Trending at Home for Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones

The Falcons have been anything but a dependable bet this season as they’ve gone 2-9 ATS over their last 11 games. They’ve been a much more reliable O/U bet, however, as the UNDER has hit in five straight of their home games and in all but one of their seven home games so far this season. The Falcons will welcome the New Orleans Saints to the Georgia Dome on Sunday.

Shark Bites
  • The Saints are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games against the Falcons.
  • The Saints are 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after a win.
  • The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games after winning as an underdog.

The Saints are coming off a 38-27 home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but have failed to put up big numbers on the road lately as they’ve averaged just 14.6 points over their last three road games. The Saints are just 2-5 SU on the road this season and lost a close 37-34 game the last time these teams met in Atlanta.

After losing six straight games, the Falcons are riding a two-game winning streak after putting an end to the Panthers’ perfect season. You’d think any offense that features Julio Jones would rank amongst the top offenses in the league, but the Falcons are ranked in the bottom half of the league with just 21.5 points per game. Even worse for the Falcons, they’ve averaged a measly 14.3 points in their last three games.

Game ID: 
701275
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Jets are on an ATS Roll

Ryan Fitzpatrick New York Jets

With a playoff spot in their grasp, the Jets will travel upstate for a divisional matchup in Buffalo against the Bills. The Jets are getting hot at the right time as the season winds down—winning five straight games, while going 4-0-1 ATS during that stretch.

Shark Bites
  • The Jets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bills.
  • The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Jets are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games after winning as an underdog.

The Bills’ playoff hopes are long gone, but they’ll be trying to spoil the Jets’ postseason aspirations. New York opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the Bills have been a strong ATS play at home over their last 10 home games—going 7-3 ATS. There’s something about playing in January that hasn’t quite clicked for Buffalo though, as they’ve gone just 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games in January.

During their five game winning streak the Jets have averaged 27.2 points per game while allowing just 16.8 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a major reason for the Jets’ recent success as he’s thrown 13 touchdowns and just one interception during the five games. Brandon Marshall has also been giving opposing defenses nightmares, as he’s recorded 115 or more receiving yards in four of the five games.

Game ID: 
701276
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Lions Dominating Bears in Recent Games

Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson

Dominating isn’t often a word used to describe the Detroit Lions, but after five straight wins over the Chicago Bears, it seems appropriate. With basically nothing on the line for either team (except a better draft pick for the loser), the players will simply be playing for the love of the game, or for pending free-agents, fatter contract offers in the offseason.

Shark Bites
  • The visiting team is 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.
  • In 13 career games vs the Lions, Jay Cutler has 18 TD passes and eight interceptions.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bears' last four games.

Some alarming trends stick out for the Bears heading into the game. Most disturbing for the team and their season ticket holders is the team’s 1-9 SU home record in their last 10 games. They’ve also been a bad bet against divisional opponents, posting a 6-14 ATS record in their last 20 games vs divisional foes.

The Lions will be looking to end the season on a three game win streak, after winning their last two games, both SU and ATS. The Lions won a close game over the Bears on October 18th—37-34. Matthew Stafford went off in the game for 405 passing yards and four touchdowns, while Calvin Johnson had his only 100+ receiving yard game of the season—catching six balls, for 166 yards and a touchdown.

Game ID: 
701278
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Magic Have Awful History vs Cavs

The Cleveland Cavaliers are beginning to stretch the gap between themselves and everyone else in the Eastern Conference and will be looking for their eighth victory in 10 games when they welcome the Orlando Magic to town Saturday.

Shark Bites
  • The Magic are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
  • The Magic are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the teams in Cleveland.

To say the Cavs have given the Magic fits as of late would be a massive understatement. Orlando is winless in their previous 12 games against the wine and gold. The good news for Magic backers is they’ve recently fared well coming off a loss, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after dropping the previous game.

The UNDER is trending ahead of this one for both sides. Cleveland has seen its prior six contests go below the closing total, while the UNDER is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between the clubs in Ohio.

Game ID: 
712662
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NCAAB: Baylor at Kansas Preview

There’s no shortage of firepower on Saturday’s college basketball slate, but hoops fans and bettors shouldn’t neglect Baylor-Kansas if they’re looking for an entertaining show.

Shark Bites
  • The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Jayhawks last 6 games.
  • The road team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings between Baylor and Kansas.

The No. 21 Bears have historically gotten dominated by No. 3-ranked Kansas, as the Jayhawks have gone 24-4 in their last 28 vs. their Texas rivals. Kansas has also posted five straight wins against the Baylor.

In a stat that speaks to just how dominant Kansas’s basketball program has been throughout the years, the Jayhawks are favoured to win their 25th straight conference opener thanks to a talented starting five that includes guards Frank Mason III, Devonte Graham and Wayne Seldon Jr.

Just how good has Kansas been at Allen Fieldhouse under head coach Bill Self? The Jayhawks are 196-9 at home with Self at the helm.

Game ID: 
714866
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Pacers-Pistons Games Cashing OVERs

November seems like a long time ago for the Indiana Pacers, as the team failed to follow up that hot month by gliding through a rocky December. The Pacers have an opportunity to start 2016 with some consistency when the Detroit Pistons come to town in Saturday’s NBA action.

Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
  • The Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Indiana.
  • The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the Pistons and Pacers.

When the Pacers and Pistons collide, high-scoring affairs are the story. The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. Detroit comes into the game cashing OVER tickets with ease, with the O/U going 8-2 in their previous 10 tilts.

Indiana allowed an average of 87.5 points in a pair of consecutive wins over Minnesota and Atlanta before losing to the Chicago Bulls in overtime and then allowing the Milwaukee Bucks to shoot a sizzling 58.4 percent from the floor in Thursday’s 120-116 loss.

Needless to say, solid efforts on the defensive end of the floor are going to be needed from the Pacers this year if they have any aspirations of making a deep playoff run.

Game ID: 
712660
League: 

Bulls are a Great Bet vs Raptors

The Toronto Raptors are looking like a different team as of late and will have an opportunity to avenge their lone loss in their last five games when they welcome the Chicago Bulls to town in Sunday’s slate of NBA action.

Shark Bites
  • The Bulls are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Raptors.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Raptors' last six games in January.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Bulls' last eight games.

Like most teams, the key to Toronto’s success has been success on the defensive end of the floor. The Raps have won 14 straight games when holding the opposition to under 100 points. That’s bad news for Dinos backers, as the Bulls have reached triple digits in six straight games heading into the tilt.

Stringing covers together for Canada’s lone NBA club has not been an easy task. Toronto — who covered the -6 spread in a 104-94 victory over Charlotte on New Year’s Day — is an ugly 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Game ID: 
712670
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