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Saints march in as 1-point home MNF favorites

The current offensive prowess of these teams suggests the Monday Nighter will be an OVER play. History suggests the Packers and Saints always play OVER (or at least every meeting since 1995).

But at 51, is the total too high? You need at least a 28-24 result or something of that nature to win your bet. Check out the Monday Night Football betting preview.

Monday Night Football odds - Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints -1 O/U 51

This is a significant game in terms of the NFC Wild Card race, but it may be more important to the Saints. The Packers are still in the NFC North race, while the Saints are three games back of the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South and are chasing a Wild Card.

Last week, the Packers routed Chicago 37-3 as a 3.5-point favorite, while the Saints beat Kansas City 30-20 as a 6-point road chalk. {URL=http://www.oddsshark.com/Stats/Matchup/Football/NFL/8167}[ Matchup report and Monday Night Football betting trends ]{/URL}

This game features the league’s top-rated offense against the legit secondary of the Packers. The Packers secondary has 16 interceptions this season and has returned six for touchdowns.

MVP candidate Drew Brees (3,251 yards, 18 TD, 11 INT) has to put up a ton of points tonight, as the Saints D is ranked 24th in the league.

The Saints can be successful if their RB duo of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush can run the ball, as even though the Packers are legit at stopping the pass, they are weak at stopping the run.

If the Saints can run the ball, they can keep the Packers offense on the sidelines and more importantly keep their own defense off the field. Does this scenario present a problem for that ‘bet the OVER’ theory? It sure does.

This season, the Saints are 6-4 ATS and the Packers are 6-3-1 ATS.

The total has gone Over in 6 of the Packers last 7 games when playing the Saints including all four since 19995. The Packers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The total has gone Over in 8 of the Saints last 10 games at in the Big Easy. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Odds Blogger Pick:

Brees has had a good year, but he has been picked off 11 times. He needs to cut down on his turnovers tonight for the Saints to win. If he can the game will, probably, become a shootout, which is great for the Saints since they can light up the scoreboard.

The Saints have not been at home in the past few games and they will put on a show tonight, as Brees will have a huge game. We predict the Saints will win and cover the MNF spread, staying in the playoff picture. Also, since the Saints can score a ton and they have a weak defense, the OVER is a good pick.

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