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Premier League Preview: Week 11

As expected, there was basically no change in the table between the teams in the top five last week as they are all still separated by three points. There is, however, serious potential for movement in Week 11 as we have three matchups between teams all residing in the top seven.

For reference here is where the top seven teams in the Premier League stand heading into Week 11 action:

Top seven teams in the English Premier League
TeamGamesWinsDrawsLossesGoals ForGoals AgainstPoints
1. Manchester City1072124923
2. Arsenal10721231023
3. Liverpool10721241323
4. Chelsea1071221922
5. Tottenham1055014520
6. Everton1053215818
7. Watford10433141315

Tottenham was the only team among the top five to lose ground in the title race as they were the only team to not grab three points from their Week 10 fixture. Spurs drew their match against the defending league champs in a 1-1 effort but still lack the finishing touches in the attacking end. The North London club will now be without five key players for its derby with Arsenal and is in danger of losing its title as the only remaining unbeaten club.

Fixtures of the Week

The best fixtures are pretty obvious this week as we have our first North London derby of the season, a matchup between two of the most electric teams in the league – Liverpool and Watford – and a classic between Chelsea and Everton at Stamford Bridge.

The North London Derby

Horrible timing for this match. Spurs are a thin club right now that has had a tough time hanging on to results and has not outright won a match since the beginning of October when they dealt Manchester City their first loss of the season. Despite their slew of injuries and suspensions, Spurs are still the soundest defensive club in England’s top flight and should manage to give Arsene Wenger fits this Super Sunday. Arsenal, on the other hand, has been in absolute top form and have shown quality in every area. This fixture has huge implications for final standings in the table so expect a tightly contested game.

ArSENAL VS TOTTENHAM 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Arsenal-1 (+165)-1102.5 (-130) OVER
Tottenham+1 (-200)+2952.5 (+105) UNDER
Draw +255 

Odds as of November 4 at Bovada

Lukaku vs Antonio Conte

There was a lot of speculation during the summer transfer window that Antonio Conte was hot in pursuit of Romelu Lukaku. He failed to complete the purchase of the Belgian striker, however, and Lukaku has gone on to score seven goals in his last seven games. This is essentially a tryout for Lukaku, who has been quoted as saying he would love to make a return to Stamford Bridge one day to once again dawn Chelsea Blue. Both teams are on a run of good results and this could wind up being the best game on the entire slate.

Chelsea vs Everton
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Chelsea-1 (-115)-1853 (+110) OVER
Everton+1 (-110)+4753 (-135) UNDER
Draw +325 

Odds as of November 4 at Bovada

Could Watford Sting the Reds?

This match is pure awesome. Jurgen Klopp has brought his high pace, risk/reward tactics to the league and they’ve translated beautifully. The Reds sit in a three-way tie with Manchester City and Arsenal for first place and have scored a league-best 24 goals. Watford is a team that’s surprising a lot of people and actually sits just above Manchester United in the table. They’ve gotten points from four straight matches and even beat Man U in a head-to-head earlier this season.

Liverpool vs Watford 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Liverpool-1.5 (+165)-3753 (-115) OVER
Watford+1.5 (-200)+9503 (-110) UNDER
Draw +475 

Odds as of November 4 at Bovada

Bets of the Week

I went 2-1 in my bets of the week in Week 10 and have a few more for you hungry punters. I’m going out on a bit of a limb with my selections for this week’s fixtures so keep that in mind before you blindly bet them.

Watford +1.5 +105: I think the Hornets hang around in this one. Liverpool has been incredibly susceptible to goals as they’ve been scored on in all but one league-play match this year. The Reds could bag two or three for themselves but are likely to give some up to a Watford side that can absolutely score. If you’re feeling particularly brash, you may even want to give Watford’s +950 moneyline a look. I can’t say I endorse this bet or that I’ll be playing it but it’s not completely out of the question.

Chelsea vs Everton OVER 3 +110: I’m begging for goals in this one. Conte passing on Lukaku and him burying a couple would be absolute magic and I’m praying it happens. Chelsea has been fairly stout this year but both the Toffees and the Blues have been filling the net. Everton has little to lose as they travel to London and I can see them selling out for offense – a 4-2 or 4-3 result is not out of the realm of possibility.

Arsenal vs Tottenham DRAW +255: The last two North London derbies have ended in draws and I’m predicting the same result for this weekend. Spurs have not allowed more than a goal in a Premier League match this season and they’ve not been scoring many themselves. Their last three matches have all ended with both teams earning a point and with all that’s on the line in this one, I think it ends 0-0 or 1-1.

Stoke City Moneyline +275: This bet is purely a West Ham fade. The Hammers have been horrific this year and it’s starting to look pretty grim. They’ve scored just two total goals in their last three games and Stoke City is starting to find its rhythm as they’ve now won three straight in the Premier League and have scored at least one goal in five consecutive matches. I like Stoke in this one even if Xherdan Shaqiri is not fit enough to suit up. West Ham falls at home 2-1.

Enjoy the footy and good luck with the wagering!

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