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Week 29 Premier League Preview: Race for the Golden Boot

With the Citizens and Spurs sitting 10 points back of Chelsea in the race for Premier League glory, a bet on the EPL outright winner is not one I’d advise. It would take a collapse similar to the one experienced by PSG in the final five minutes of their Champions League Round of 16 second leg with Barcelona where they conceded three goals to lose the tie after taking a four to nil lead into Spain.

Since I still have to produce content for the Week 29 EPL slate, however, I’ve scoured the EPL futures to find a competitive race and the closest, most interesting one I could find was the battle for the Golden Boot.

Golden Booted Boys of the Premiership

Heading into the Week 29 slate, 12 players have 11 or more goals and the top five guys on the board are separated by just four. Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane are the co-leaders with 19 apiece but Bovada has favored the Belgian at +200 over last year’s leading goal scorer. As a diehard – completely unbiased – fan of Spurs, I vehemently disagree with that analysis and will be putting my money squarely and firmly on the +250 line of Hattrick Harry.

The Tottenham boy has now scored more goals for his team (68) than Luis Saurez did for Liverpool (65) in the same number of minutes, making Kane the most prolific EPL scorer of his time. Lukaku is no slouch but Harry has been lighting up the scoresheet to the tune of 15 goals in his last 13 fixtures in all competitions. Good on you, Mr. Kane. His latest injury that he sustained early in Tottenham's FA Cup quarterfinal with Millwall will keep him off the pitch for a few weeks but that's OK. It's taken him just 22 EPL appearances to get to his lofty total as he's been scoring in bunches when healthy.

Spurs have a fairly soft schedule down the stretch and once their FA Cup run concludes, they’ll be able to put their sole focus on the league and I figure that translates into a boatload of goals for their star striker when he heals up. 

It couldn’t hurt to spread the love a little, though, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic offering a line of +1400 after opening the season as one of the favorites. The ageless Swede has 15 this season and United has been on an upward trend – save their last performance against the league leaders.

Beyond that, I have no problem with the 50/1 value assigned to Jermain Defoe. The former Tottenham man has 14 and although it’s not likely he catches the leaders, there’s no reason to not have a little punt with such a huge possible payout on the line.

Premier League Top GOal scorer

Odds as of March 16 at Bovada

  • Romelu Lukaku +200
  • Harry Kane +250
  • Diego Costa +325
  • Alexis Sanchez +700
  • Sergio Aguero +1200
  • Zlatan Ibrahimovic +1400
  • Sadio Mane +2500
  • Jermain Defoe +5000
  • Eden Hazard +5000

Week 29 Game Lines

For a brief analysis and picks on each of the games listed below, check out the video at the top of the article and let us know what you think. Here are the March 16 lines from Bovada for the rest of the games this weekend:

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
West Brom+0.5 (+120)+3952.5 (-125) O
Arsenal-0.5 (-154)-1452.5 (EVEN) U
Draw +280 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Crystal Palace-0.5 (-115)-1152.5 (+115) O
Watford+0.5 (-105)+3302.5 (-145) U
Draw +235 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Everton-1 (-120)-2102.5 (-125) O
Hull City+1 (EVEN)+6002.5 (EVEN) U
Draw +320 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Stoke City+1 (-125)+5252.5 (EVEN) O
Chelsea-1 (EVEN)-1802.5 (-120) U
Draw +285 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
SunderlandPick (-125)+1502.5 (+115) O
BurnleyPick (EVEN)+1852.5 (-135) U
Draw +280 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
West Ham-0.5 (+125)+1252.5 (-125) O
Leicester+0.5 (-150)+2252.5 (EVEN U
Draw +230 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Bournemouth-0.5 (-120)+1052.5 (-135) O
Swansea City+0.5 (EVEN)+2602.5 (+110) U
Draw +240 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Middlesbrough+1 (-135)+5252.5 (+115) O
Manchester U-1 (+110)-1702.5 (-140) U
Draw +275 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Tottenham-0.5 (-145)-1502.5 (-110) O
Southampton+0.5 (+120)+4252.5 (-115) U
Draw +275 
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Manchester C-0.5 (-110)-1053 (+105) O
Liverpool+0.5 (-115)+2753 (-130) U
Draw +260 

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