As a general rule, sportsbooks tend to do well on prop betting because props are driven by public interest and perception. Many bettors play them solely for fun in hopes of a big payout and don’t really give them too much thought.
Most sportsbooks also spend much less time making sure the lines are sharp on props than they do on more traditional lines such as point spreads, moneylines and Over/Under totals. Instead, they usually charge extra juice on props, making it easier for them to profit on these types of wagers.
Props Are For Smart Bettors, Not Suckers
While some people write props off as ‘sucker bets’ due to their popularity among casual bettors and the increased juice, there are plenty of bettors who make very good money wagering on them. One example of a profitable place to focus on is player props. Most sportsbooks offer some variety of these types of bets, usually in Over/Under form like totals. For example, you might see props like “Will LeBron James score more or less than 32 points?” or “Will Dez Bryant have more or less than six receptions?”
The most common type of bettor wagers just on games in team sports like football or basketball and focuses on handicapping the teams as a whole. But some bettors analyze individual stats and become specialists, such as fantasy sports gurus, often finding prop lines at sportsbooks that are quite a bit off from a player’s projected production.
Sportsbooks simply do not have the time to focus a lot of energy on every single player on which they offer a prop bet. Because of this, lines are set using the basics, such as a player’s average stats and the average stats of the defense or pitcher he is facing.
You Have An Advantage With Props
Bettors have the edge over sportsbooks in this manner because they have the time and power to dig deeper. How has this player fared against this team in the past? What is his recent form like? Is he 100% healthy? With hundreds of prop bets available every week, you will surely find regular discrepancies if you look hard enough and research.
One particular discrepancy you will sometimes come across involves lines appearing too high. Casual bettors mostly like to bet popular players to go “Over” the posted total, and the lines are adjusted accordingly. However, the better bet is to find projections that are way too high and have enough value on the “Under” to overcome the extra juice.