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Super Contest Week 10 Computer Picks

Week 9 was the computer’s best of the season as it rolled up a 9-3-1 ATS mark against the closing line. Somehow, with all those winners, we managed to select two losers for the Westgate SuperContest, making our contest picks go just 3-2.

It’s time to start ripping off a bunch of 5-0 weeks to get back in contention . . .

Dallas -6.5 vs Jaguars – computer says 26-10 Cowboys – Matchup

Most books still have this game off the board owing to Tony Romo’s injured back but the Westgate put the line at -6.5 in what is essentially a neutral-site game in London. This line would be higher with Romo confirmed and it’s a good value bet here.

Kansas City -2 at Buffalo – computer says 28-24 Chiefs - Matchup

The computer likes the Chiefs to extend their current 6-1 ATS overall run and their 10-3 ATS run as a road team. But we are nervous here as the betting consensus favors the Chiefs at nearly two of every three bets we are tracking.

And we are nervous that the line is moving here, albeit in the right direction for this pick. The Westgate had it a -2 for the Chiefs while most online shops (including Bovada) have it as even odds as of Friday.

Arizona -7 vs St. Louis – computer says 26-14 Cardinals - Matchup

We continue with the chalk munching here with another overmatched team getting just seven points on the road. The Rams were good and lucky to escape San Francisco with a win and, if ever there is a letdown spot, this is it.

The Rams have won consecutive road games just twice since 2008 and never against quality competition. Arizona is a riding a nice 6-1 ATS win streak and will extend it here.

Pittsburgh -5 ay NY Jets – computer says 27-15 Steelers – Matchup

The second-most lopsided score prediction also sees the heaviest betting action on one team, as 70% of the bets so far have been on Pitt.

And why not? The Steelers are hot, Big Ben has thrown 12 TD passes in two weeks and the Jets have lost eight in a row. Pitt has struggled lately as road favorites but this is another solid value play with a small road chalk facing an imploding team.

Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago – computer says 29-17 Packers – Betting Preview

All the trends favor the Packers here and the Bears have been in a freefall. Take a look.

Bears 3-11 ATS last 14 meetings with Packers (1-7 ATS L8)
Bears 5-12 ATS last 17 road games vs. NFC North (1-5 ATS L6)
Bears 8-3-1 ATS last 11 road games after bye week
Packers 7-0-1 ATS last 8 games after bye week
Packers 9-2 ATS last 11 home games vs. NFC North
Packers 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games as home favorites

This is the highest total ever for this matchup (since our database begins in 1980) and it could be a major rout.

Good luck to everyone!

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